Is Sarwar in a Plot to Oust Starmer?

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has recently made headlines by calling for Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, a move that has sparked speculation about a potential leadership challenge within the party. Sarwar's statement comes as he attempts to galvanise his campaign for the upcoming Holyrood elections, emphasising the need for change in leadership amid ongoing scandals. His actions have led to a controversial suspension of MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy, following revelations about her connections to a convicted sex offender, further complicating Labour's internal dynamics.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Anas Sarwar's recent call for Sir Keir Starmer to resign has put a spotlight on the internal struggles of the Labour Party, particularly in Scotland. Sarwar has maintained his stance despite pushback from senior party members and has confirmed his commitment to supporting Starmer as long as he is "delivering for Scotland." The situation surrounding the party is further complicated by the suspension of MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy, which has raised questions about Labour's handling of sensitive issues and scandals, revealing a rift that could affect the party's performance in the May elections.

Key takeaways

• Anas Sarwar has called for Sir Keir Starmer to resign, claiming leadership changes are necessary.
• He suspended MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy amidst concerns over her relationship with a convicted sex offender.
• Despite Sarwar's bold stance, only limited support has emerged from other Labour figures.

Timeline: how we got here

The context surrounding Sarwar's call for Starmer's resignation can be traced through key events:

• October 2023: Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Sir Keir Starmer's resignation, highlighting a need for leadership change.
• October 2023: Pam Duncan-Glancy is suspended from Labour's Holyrood group amid allegations regarding her connections to Sean Morton.
• October 2023: Sarwar confirms that he suspended Duncan-Glancy after failing to receive satisfactory answers about her past relationship with Morton.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Sarwar's assertion that he is not part of a broader conspiracy to unseat Starmer has been a significant development. He has consistently maintained that his decision to call for Starmer's resignation was made independently, despite reports suggesting he consulted with other senior Labour figures before making his statement.

What was already established

Prior to Sarwar’s remarks, there has been growing discontent within certain factions of the Labour Party regarding Starmer's leadership style and decision-making. Additionally, the ongoing scandals surrounding Labour figures have brought scrutiny to the party's overall credibility and effectiveness in addressing serious issues.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing internal discord within the Labour Party could affect public perception and trust in the party as a viable opposition to the SNP. Voter sentiment may be influenced by how the party handles its internal crises, which could have ripple effects on local governance and services in Scotland.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, political instability within the Labour Party may create an uncertain environment for investment and employment decisions. Companies might hesitate to engage with Labour-led initiatives if they perceive a lack of cohesive leadership.

Policy and regulation

As Sarwar and Starmer navigate their differences, upcoming policies and legislative proposals may be affected. The leadership struggle could delay or complicate the party's ability to present a united front on crucial issues, particularly those impacting Scotland.

Numbers that matter

• 2: The number of Scottish Labour MPs publicly supporting Sarwar’s call for Starmer’s resignation.
• 1: The number of MSPs suspended over connections to a convicted sex offender.
• 100%: Starmer’s expressed backing for Sarwar amidst these controversies.

Definitions and jargon buster

• MSP: Member of the Scottish Parliament, responsible for representing the interests of their constituents.
• Convicted sex offender: An individual who has been found guilty of committing sexual crimes.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the Scottish Labour Party will need to manage the fallout from Sarwar’s statements and the suspension of Duncan-Glancy. They must focus on maintaining party unity as the May elections approach.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the Holyrood elections draw closer, Labour's internal dynamics will be critical. The party must address any lingering reputational damage and present a coherent platform to voters.

Signals to watch

• Upcoming statements from senior Labour figures regarding leadership support.
• Polling data reflecting public perceptions of Labour’s effectiveness in Scotland.
• Further developments in the investigation surrounding Pam Duncan-Glancy.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about Labour Party developments to understand potential implications for local governance.
• Engage with community discussions regarding the party’s direction and leadership.

Don’t

• Dismiss the importance of party unity in shaping public opinion.
• Ignore the potential impact of ongoing scandals on electoral outcomes.

Checklist

• Review recent Labour Party statements for insights into their strategy.
• Monitor media coverage of the leadership situation.
• Consider the implications of leadership changes for local politics.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, with several unknowns that could shift the dynamics within the Labour Party. The extent to which Sarwar's actions resonate with the electorate is yet to be seen, and there is a risk that internal divisions could weaken the party's standing against the SNP. Additionally, the investigations into Duncan-Glancy's affiliations may reveal further complications that could affect public trust in Labour.

Bottom line

Anas Sarwar's call for Sir Keir Starmer to resign highlights significant internal tensions within the Labour Party, particularly in Scotland. As Sarwar attempts to position himself as a leader ready to challenge conventional wisdom, the implications for party unity and electoral success remain uncertain. The upcoming months will be pivotal as the party faces the impending Holyrood elections.

FAQs

What prompted Anas Sarwar to call for Sir Keir Starmer's resignation?

Anas Sarwar called for Sir Keir Starmer's resignation due to ongoing scandals and a belief that leadership changes are needed to strengthen Labour's position ahead of the May elections.

What is the current status of MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy?

Pam Duncan-Glancy has been suspended from Labour's Holyrood group pending an investigation into her relationship with a convicted sex offender.

How have other Labour figures reacted to Sarwar's call?

Reactions have been mixed; while some MSPs support Sarwar, the majority of senior Labour figures have rallied around Starmer, indicating a divided response within the party.