Will Snow and Ice Disrupt the UK After Heavy Rain?

The UK is bracing for a return of wintry weather, with forecasts indicating snow and ice across various regions. Following a period of persistent rain, temperatures are expected to drop significantly, plunging as much as six degrees below average. The Met Office has issued yellow warnings for snow and ice, particularly in Scotland and northern England, effective from 16:00 GMT on Thursday until 12:00 on Friday.

Last updated: 10 February 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The imminent arrival of Arctic air signifies a notable shift in weather patterns across the UK. Starting from Thursday evening, rain will likely transition to snow, especially over higher ground, with the potential for settling snow above 200 metres. Areas such as northern England and Scotland could see accumulations of up to 10 cm. As the precipitation clears moving south, a rapid drop in temperatures is expected, leading to hazardous conditions on untreated surfaces due to ice formation.

Key takeaways

Yellow warnings for snow and ice have been issued for Scotland and northern England.
Temperatures could drop to 3–6°C below average, creating icy conditions.
Settling snow is anticipated mainly above 200 metres, with up to 10 cm possible.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the start of February 2023, the UK has experienced persistent wet conditions, which are now giving way to colder weather. Key dates include:

10 February 2023: Yellow warnings issued by the Met Office for snow and ice.
11 February 2023: Snow expected to settle over higher ground, with temperatures dropping significantly.
12 February 2023: Forecasting a return to average temperatures by Tuesday.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The latest updates underscore the immediate risk posed by snow and ice, particularly in Scotland and northern England. The Met Office has emphasised the potential for dangerous road conditions due to ice and settling snow.

What was already established

Prior forecasts indicated a shift to colder weather but did not specify the extent of snowfall or the issuance of health alerts, which have now been confirmed by the UK Health Security Agency.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As temperatures dip below average, households should prepare for potential impacts on heating costs and accessibility. Icy roads may complicate travel plans, particularly for those in rural or elevated areas.

Businesses and jobs

Industries reliant on transport and logistics may face disruptions due to hazardous driving conditions. Employers should consider remote working arrangements where possible to ensure employee safety.

Policy and regulation

The UK's Health Security Agency has issued yellow alerts for the colder weather, predicting increased demand on health and social care services, particularly for vulnerable populations. This underscores the necessity for local authorities to be prepared for potential health crises related to the cold.

Numbers that matter

3–6°C: Expected drop in temperatures across the UK.
200m: Altitude above which snow is likely to settle.
10cm: Potential maximum accumulation of snow in certain areas.
06:00 GMT: Start time for health alerts from the UK Health Security Agency on Friday.
08:00 GMT: End time for health alerts on Monday.

Definitions and jargon buster

Yellow warning: A notification issued by the Met Office indicating potentially impactful weather that could disrupt daily activities.
Arctic air: Cold air masses originating from the Arctic region, typically bringing significant drops in temperature.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Residents should prepare for immediate impacts from the forecast snow and ice, ensuring they have adequate supplies and plans in place for travel disruptions.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the winter progresses, it’s important to monitor weather forecasts for continued fluctuations between wet and cold periods, which may affect infrastructure and health services.

Signals to watch

Updates from the Met Office regarding weather warnings.
Local health service announcements regarding service availability.
Developments in weather patterns that could indicate further freezing conditions or heavy rainfall.

Practical guidance

Do

Listen to weather updates from reliable sources.
Keep emergency supplies at home, including food and heating sources.
Drive with caution and ensure vehicles are winter-ready.

Don’t

Ignore weather warnings issued by local authorities.
Travel unnecessarily during adverse weather conditions.
Neglect the needs of vulnerable family members or neighbours.

Checklist

Check heating systems and stock up on fuel if necessary.
Prepare a winter emergency kit with food, water, and blankets.
Review travel plans and consider alternatives if conditions worsen.
Ensure pets are kept warm and safe from the cold.
Stay informed about community resources for those in need.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While forecasts indicate significant snowfall and icy conditions, actual outcomes may vary based on localised weather patterns. The potential for flooding due to saturated ground remains a concern, and residents should prepare for the possibility of further weather alerts as conditions evolve.

Bottom line

The return of wintry weather across the UK signifies a critical period for residents to remain vigilant and prepared. By staying informed and taking proactive measures, individuals can mitigate the risks associated with the impending snow and ice.

FAQs

What should I do during a yellow weather warning?

During a yellow weather warning, it’s crucial to prepare for potential disruptions, including travel delays and hazardous conditions. Stay informed through official channels and take necessary precautions.

How can I keep my family safe during cold weather?

To ensure safety during cold weather, dress warmly, limit outdoor exposure, and check on vulnerable family members regularly. Keeping homes adequately heated is also essential.

What are the health risks associated with cold weather?

Cold weather can lead to health issues such as hypothermia and frostbite, particularly for vulnerable populations. Increased demand on healthcare services may also occur due to these risks.