Is Kim Jong Un's Teen Daughter the Next Heir to North Korea?

In a significant development, South Korea's National Intelligence Agency (NIA) has indicated that Kim Jong Un has chosen his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his heir apparent. This decision comes amidst her increasing visibility at official events, raising questions about the future of leadership in North Korea, especially given the country's traditional patriarchal norms. Kim Ju Ae, believed to be 13 years old, has made her mark alongside her father at high-profile events, but her designation as heir opens up a myriad of uncertainties regarding the implications for North Korea's domestic and foreign policies.

Last updated: 09 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Currently, North Korea is preparing for its upcoming party congress, scheduled for later this month, which is set to be the largest political event in five years. During this congress, it's expected that the regime will outline its priorities for the next five years, including critical areas such as foreign policy, military strategies, and nuclear ambitions. The announcement about Kim Ju Ae's potential succession comes at a time when the North Korean leadership is likely to be discussing significant shifts in policy direction, possibly reflecting her new status within the regime.

Key takeaways

• Kim Jong Un reportedly designates his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his successor.
• Kim Ju Ae, aged 13, has been increasingly visible at state functions.
• The upcoming party congress will address North Korea's future policies and ambitions.

Timeline: how we got here

The speculation regarding Kim Ju Ae's succession has evolved over recent months, with several key moments marking this narrative:

• 2022: Kim Ju Ae made her first appearance on state television, inspecting a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile.
• September 2023: Ju Ae accompanied her father on his first known trip abroad to Beijing.
• October 2023: The NIA reports that Kim Ju Ae is likely to be the designated heir as North Korea prepares for a significant political congress.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent assertion by the NIA regarding Kim Ju Ae's status as heir marks a notable shift in the North Korean narrative. This is particularly significant given the cultural context in which leadership transitions have historically favoured male heirs, raising eyebrows about the implications of her selection.

What was already established

Prior to this announcement, Kim Ju Ae had been increasingly in the public eye, showcasing a softer image of her father and participating in state functions. Analysts had previously speculated about the succession plans of Kim Jong Un, with many dismissing the possibility of a female leader in North Korea due to traditional gender roles.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the immediate implications for UK consumers may not be direct, the broader geopolitical landscape could be affected. Any shifts in North Korea's policies under a new leadership could have ramifications for global security, trade, and diplomatic relations.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses with interests in the Asia-Pacific region may need to reassess their strategies in light of potential changes in North Korean governance. The uncertainty surrounding Kim Ju Ae's succession could impact negotiations and interactions with North Korean officials.

Policy and regulation

As North Korea prepares for its party congress, UK policymakers will be observing closely. Changes in North Korean policy may necessitate adjustments in international strategies regarding sanctions, trade, and diplomatic engagement with both North and South Korea.

Numbers that matter

• 13: Kim Ju Ae's age, making her one of the youngest heirs in the world.
• 5: The years since the last party congress, highlighting the significance of this upcoming event.
• 1: The number of Kim family's generations that have ruled North Korea, indicating the continuity of leadership.

Definitions and jargon buster

• NIA: National Intelligence Agency, South Korea's primary intelligence service.
• Party Congress: A significant political event in North Korea where leadership and policy directions are discussed and confirmed.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should closely monitor the outcomes of the upcoming party congress for indications of policy changes and leadership dynamics.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As Kim Ju Ae's role becomes clearer, analysts will look for shifts in North Korea's diplomatic posture, particularly regarding relations with the US and South Korea.

Signals to watch

• Key speeches or announcements during the party congress.
• Changes in state media narratives surrounding Kim Ju Ae.
• International reactions to North Korea's policy decisions post-congress.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed on developments from North Korea and their potential impact on global politics.
• Monitor expert analyses on the implications of Kim Ju Ae's succession.

Don’t

• Assume stability in North Korean policies; be prepared for rapid changes.
• Overlook the significance of gender dynamics in leadership succession.

Checklist

• Review reliable news sources for updates on North Korean politics.
• Understand the historical context of leadership transitions in North Korea.
• Consider the implications of North Korean policies on international relations.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the NIA's assessment presents a clear picture of Kim Ju Ae's rising prominence, there are significant uncertainties. The traditional male dominance in leadership roles raises questions about the feasibility of a female leader in North Korea. Additionally, Kim Jong Un's relatively young age suggests that designating a 13-year-old as heir might be premature and could reflect deeper strategic motives rather than a straightforward succession plan.

Bottom line

The potential elevation of Kim Ju Ae to heir apparent introduces a complex dynamic within North Korea's ruling elite. While this could suggest a shift in policy direction, the uncertainties surrounding her age and gender in a patriarchal society leave much to be understood about the future of North Korean governance.

FAQs

Who is Kim Ju Ae?

Kim Ju Ae is the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and is currently being positioned as his potential successor, marking a significant departure from traditional succession norms in the country.

Why is Kim Ju Ae's selection as heir significant?

This selection is notable because it challenges the deeply entrenched patriarchal norms of North Korea, where leadership has historically passed through male heirs.

What can we expect from the upcoming party congress?

The party congress is expected to outline North Korea's priorities for the next five years, including foreign policy and military strategies, amid the backdrop of Kim Ju Ae's potential leadership.