Will the Welsh Tory Leader's Team Shift to Reform Before the Conference?

In a significant political shake-up, two senior aides to the leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh Parliament have defected to Reform UK just days before the Tories' party conference. This move, paired with prior defections, raises questions about the Conservative Party's stability and prospects in the upcoming Senedd elections.

Last updated: 20 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The defections of Zak Weaver, former deputy chief of staff, and Tomos Llewelyn, senior communications officer for the Welsh Conservatives, to Reform UK highlight a growing discontent within the party ranks. These departures come just ahead of the Tories' annual conference in Llandudno, where party leader Darren Millar is expected to address members and dismiss Reform UK as "not a serious party." This situation poses immediate implications for the Conservative Party, particularly as they prepare for the 7 May Senedd election, where they face the prospect of falling to fourth place in opinion polls.

Key takeaways

Two senior aides defect to Reform UK, indicating potential instability within the Welsh Conservatives.
Darren Millar plans to dismiss Reform UK at the upcoming party conference.
Polls suggest that the Tories could place fourth in the forthcoming Senedd elections.

Timeline: how we got here

The political landscape for the Welsh Conservatives has changed significantly over the past few months:

September 2023: Former Tory leadership contender Robert Jenrick defects to Reform UK.
October 2023: Zak Weaver and Tomos Llewelyn announce their departures from the Welsh Conservatives.
20 October 2023: Darren Millar prepares to address the party conference amid these defections.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent defections of Weaver and Llewelyn mark a continued trend of high-profile exits from the Welsh Conservative Party. These changes come as the party gears up for a critical conference and the impending 2024 Senedd elections.

What was already established

Concerns regarding the party's performance and leadership have been voiced for some time, particularly as public opinion polls show a decline in support for the Conservatives in Wales. Millar's previous statements indicated he did not expect further defections, making these recent departures particularly surprising.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The defections could influence voter sentiment in Wales, particularly as the Conservative Party attempts to establish itself as a viable alternative in the region. With public services under scrutiny, any shifts in party support could have downstream effects on policies that impact families and households, from education to healthcare.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the Conservative Party's stability may deter investment and confidence in the Welsh economy. Employers may hesitate to commit to long-term plans if the political landscape appears unstable, potentially affecting job creation in the region.

Policy and regulation

The Welsh Conservatives have long positioned themselves as a counter to Labour's governance in Wales. However, with increasing defections to Reform UK, there may be shifts in policy focus as the party seeks to consolidate its base ahead of the elections. Millar's upcoming conference speech will likely outline a defensive strategy against perceived threats from both Labour and Reform UK.

Numbers that matter

4: Current polling positions suggest the Conservatives could drop to fourth place in the upcoming elections.
27: Years of Labour rule in Wales, which Millar argues has led to a "broken" system.
2: High-profile MS defections to Reform UK in recent months, signalling potential unrest in the Conservative ranks.

Definitions and jargon buster

MS: Member of the Senedd, the elected representatives in Wales' devolved parliament.
Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, responsible for making laws and overseeing the Welsh Government.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, attention will focus on Millar’s conference speech and the party's messaging strategy as they prepare for the Senedd elections. The impact of recent defections will be scrutinised closely by both supporters and critics.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the elections approach, the Welsh Conservatives will need to demonstrate a united front to regain public confidence. This includes addressing the concerns raised by the recent departures and outlining clear, actionable policies that resonate with voters.

Signals to watch

Polling data leading up to the 7 May elections, especially in relation to voter sentiment towards the Conservative Party.
Further defections or announcements from key party figures which could indicate underlying issues within the party.
Responses from Reform UK and Plaid Cymru regarding their strategies and public messaging as they seek to capitalise on Conservative instability.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the latest developments regarding the Conservative Party and its leadership.
Engage with local political discussions to understand the implications of party dynamics on community issues.

Don’t

Assume that party leadership changes will not affect local governance and policy decisions.
Ignore the potential impact of public sentiment on future elections and policy outcomes.

Checklist

Review key policies of the Conservative Party to understand their platform ahead of the elections.
Monitor local news for insights into party dynamics and candidate positions.
Consider the implications of party changes on local services and governance.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political landscape remains fluid, with the potential for further defections or shifts within the parties involved. Despite current trends, polling data can change rapidly, and the ultimate outcomes of the Senedd elections remain uncertain. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the implications of these defections, as party loyalty and voter behaviour can be unpredictable.

Bottom line

The recent defections to Reform UK by senior aides from the Welsh Conservative Party indicate a growing unrest within the party, posing challenges ahead of the pivotal Senedd elections. As Darren Millar prepares to address these issues at the party conference, the future direction of the Conservatives in Wales remains precarious and uncertain.

FAQs

What does the defection of senior aides mean for the Conservative Party in Wales?

The defections signal potential instability and dissatisfaction within the party, which may affect their performance in the upcoming Senedd elections.

How is Darren Millar responding to these defections?

Millar is expected to dismiss Reform UK as "not a serious party" in his conference speech and focus on unifying the party ahead of the elections.

What are the implications of these defections for voters?

Voter sentiment may shift as the Conservatives struggle to maintain support, potentially influencing decisions in the upcoming elections.