Is Africa Securing a Seat at the Table in the New World Order?

Africa's heads of state are convening in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for their annual meeting amid a shifting global landscape that raises critical questions about the continent's role in international relations. As discussions unfold, leaders must address the pressing need for a unified strategy to avoid being sidelined in favour of bilateral deals that may not serve the collective interests of African nations.

Last updated: 23 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As African leaders gather in Addis Ababa, they are confronted with the realities of changing geopolitical dynamics. The shift towards a more transactional approach in international relations, particularly from major powers like the United States, poses challenges that could marginalise Africa's influence. Countries are being forced to reconsider their relationships with global powers, especially as the emphasis on bilateral deals grows, potentially undermining collective bargaining power for the continent.

Key takeaways

Africa's leaders are meeting in Addis Ababa to discuss the continent's place in a changing global landscape.
The US has shifted to a more transactional, bilateral approach in its foreign policy towards Africa.
Concerns arise that African nations may be sidelined in favour of deals that primarily benefit foreign powers.

Timeline: how we got here

The evolution of Africa's position in global affairs has been marked by several key events:

December 2020: The US strikes a minerals deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) amid a broader focus on securing natural resources.
November 2022: The Biden administration emphasises its commitment to Africa's future, but actions have raised questions about sincerity.
January 2023: Heads of state gather in Davos, Switzerland, where discussions highlight Africa's need for agency and strategy in international negotiations.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

This week's discussions in Addis Ababa are an urgent response to the growing recognition that Africa's leaders must unify to avoid being marginalised in global negotiations. There is a renewed focus on regional interests and collaboration among African nations to strengthen their bargaining power.

What was already established

Previously, the US's foreign policy towards Africa had fluctuated between engagement and neglect, with past administrations espousing varied levels of commitment. The recent shift towards a more transactional approach under the Biden administration has raised concerns about the implications for Africa's development and agency on the global stage.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

As Africa's leaders discuss their future, UK consumers may see implications in supply chains for minerals and natural resources, affecting prices and availability of goods in various sectors, including technology and construction.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, the evolving landscape in Africa presents both challenges and opportunities. Companies may need to navigate a more competitive environment as African nations seek to assert their interests and negotiate better terms for investment and trade.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its foreign policy approach towards Africa, fostering stronger partnerships that align with the continent's goals. This could involve increased investment in sustainable development and trade agreements that benefit both parties.

Numbers that matter

3 million: Estimated number of people currently displaced due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, highlighting the urgent need for resolution.
£60 billion: Africa's potential economic contribution to the global economy, if managed effectively.
12%: The proportion of global natural resources that Africa possesses, underscoring its strategic importance.

Definitions and jargon buster

Transactional approach: A foreign policy strategy focused on bilateral agreements rather than multilateral cooperation.
Collective bargaining: Negotiating as a group to achieve better terms and conditions.
Bilateral deals: Agreements made between two parties, often neglecting broader regional interests.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, African leaders must unify and outline a clear strategy to enhance collective bargaining power. This may involve forming coalitions or agreements that prioritise regional interests over individual national agendas.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the coming months, it will be essential for African nations to engage in ongoing dialogue with major powers, particularly the US and China, to ensure that their voices are heard and that they are not sidelined in future negotiations.

Signals to watch

Upcoming agreements or partnerships announced at the Addis Ababa meeting.
Shifts in investment patterns from global powers, particularly the US and China.
Regional collaborations and initiatives aimed at strengthening economic ties among African nations.

Practical guidance

Do

Encourage regional cooperation and dialogue among African states.
Focus on long-term strategic planning in negotiations with foreign powers.
Invest in capacity building and skills development to enhance agency.

Don’t

Avoid making hasty agreements that prioritise short-term gains over long-term benefits.
Neglect the importance of collective bargaining power in negotiations.
Isolate individual nations at the expense of regional unity.

Checklist

Assess the current state of regional partnerships.
Evaluate the potential impacts of upcoming negotiations on national interests.
Identify key sectors for investment and collaboration with external partners.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While there is momentum for a unified African strategy, significant risks remain. The lack of cohesive leadership and internal challenges within many African countries could hinder progress. Furthermore, the unpredictability of global powers’ interests may complicate negotiations and lead to further marginalisation of African nations if they do not act collectively.

Bottom line

Africa stands at a crucial juncture in its quest for agency in global affairs. The upcoming discussions in Addis Ababa represent a pivotal opportunity for leaders to unify and strategise effectively to secure their interests. However, achieving this will require overcoming internal challenges and fostering a collaborative spirit among nations.

FAQs

What is the significance of the African leaders' meeting in Addis Ababa?

The meeting is significant as it allows African leaders to discuss their collective strategy in the face of changing global dynamics and the need for unified action in international negotiations.

How has US foreign policy towards Africa changed?

US foreign policy has shifted towards a more transactional, bilateral approach, focusing on securing resources rather than fostering multilateral cooperation.

What challenges does Africa face in international relations?

Africa faces challenges such as the risk of being sidelined in negotiations, the need for stronger collective bargaining power, and internal political and economic issues that can hinder regional cooperation.