Is an Arctic Blast Bringing Snow and Ice to the UK?

The UK is bracing for a significant weather shift as two Met Office yellow weather warnings for snow and ice take effect across Scotland and northern England, with temperatures expected to plunge overnight. This return of Arctic air will bring widespread frost and snow, marking a notable change from the recent weeks of damp and gloomy weather.

Last updated: 03 February 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current weather forecast indicates a marked drop in temperatures across the UK, particularly in Scotland and northern England. A yellow warning for snow and ice is in effect overnight into Friday, with predictions of several centimetres of snow even at lower altitudes. The expected snowfall is coupled with a sharp drop in temperatures, leading to the first widespread frost of February.

Areas above 300 metres in Scotland could see snow accumulation ranging from 2 to 5 cm, with some locations potentially receiving up to 10 cm. In northern England, the snow is forecasted to settle at elevations above 200 metres, similarly expecting 2 to 5 cm at higher levels. This drastic weather change comes after weeks of persistent rain and cloudy conditions.

Key takeaways

Yellow weather warnings are in effect for snow and ice across Scotland and northern England.
Expect temperatures to drop significantly overnight, resulting in widespread frost.
Areas above 300 metres in Scotland could see substantial snowfall, with warnings of treacherous conditions.

Timeline: how we got here

This change in weather follows a prolonged period of damp, grey conditions that have plagued much of the UK. Key dates include:

15 January 2023: Persistent rain and cloud cover became the norm across many regions.
1 February 2023: Reports of continued dreary weather, particularly affecting cities like Aberdeen.
3 February 2023: Introduction of Met Office yellow weather warnings as Arctic air begins to flow into the UK.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most recent weather forecasts indicate the imminent arrival of snow and ice, particularly affecting the northern regions. The Met Office's yellow warnings highlight specific areas where snowfall is expected, along with a significant drop in temperatures. Additionally, the Health Security Agency has issued alerts regarding potential health impacts due to the colder weather.

What was already established

Prior to this week, the UK experienced unusually wet and cloudy weather, with many areas, including Aberdeen, facing extended periods without sunshine. Flood warnings remained in place, particularly affecting the south and south-west of England due to saturated ground conditions.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The forecasted snow and ice could disrupt travel plans, affecting both road and rail transport across the affected regions. Households should prepare for colder temperatures, which may increase heating costs and necessitate precautions against frost and ice.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses may experience disruptions, particularly those reliant on transport and logistics. The potential for icy roads could lead to delays and cancellations, impacting supply chains and service delivery. Employers should consider contingency plans for staff safety during adverse weather.

Policy and regulation

The UK government and local authorities will likely be monitoring the situation closely, especially in areas already prone to flooding or snow-related disruptions. Increased healthcare demands during colder weather may prompt discussions around resource allocation and support for vulnerable populations.

Numbers that matter

2–5 cm: Expected snow accumulation at elevations above 300 metres in Scotland.
10 cm: Maximum potential snowfall in certain areas.
75: Flood warnings currently in place across England.

Definitions and jargon buster

Yellow warning: A type of weather alert indicating that weather conditions could cause some disruption.
Met Office: The UK's national weather service, providing forecasts and weather warnings.
Arctic air: Cold air masses originating from the Arctic region, often leading to significantly lower temperatures.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Residents in affected areas should prepare for rapidly changing conditions, including potential travel disruptions and hazardous driving conditions. It's advisable to stay updated through reliable weather sources.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As winter progresses, ongoing monitoring of weather patterns will be crucial, particularly with climate change potentially leading to more extreme weather events. Longer-term strategies may need to be considered for infrastructure resilience.

Signals to watch

Updates from the Met Office on weather conditions and warnings.
Reports of travel disruptions or changes in public transport schedules.
Local authority announcements regarding community services during adverse weather.

Practical guidance

Do

Keep abreast of weather updates via the Met Office and other reliable sources.
Prepare your home for freezing conditions, including insulation and heating checks.
Drive cautiously and consider avoiding travel during severe weather warnings.

Don’t

Don’t underestimate the risks posed by icy roads and pavements.
Don’t ignore health alerts issued by local authorities.
Don’t venture into areas known for flooding without checking current conditions.

Checklist

Check your heating and ensure it’s functioning properly.
Have an emergency kit ready, including blankets, food, and water.
Plan alternative routes if travel is necessary.
Ensure pets are kept warm and safe during severe weather.
Stay informed about the latest weather warnings and updates.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As with any weather forecast, there are uncertainties regarding the exact amounts of snowfall and the timing of weather changes. Conditions can vary widely across regions, and predictions may evolve as new data becomes available. It is important to remain flexible and prepared for unexpected developments.

Bottom line

The return of Arctic air signals a significant shift in the UK's weather pattern, bringing the potential for snow and ice across Scotland and northern England. Residents should remain vigilant and prepared for colder conditions and the accompanying risks. Keeping informed and taking necessary precautions can help mitigate the impacts of this winter weather.

FAQs

What should I do if I encounter icy roads?

If you encounter icy roads, reduce your speed, keep a safe distance from other vehicles, and avoid sudden movements. It's best to stay off the roads if possible during severe weather.

How can I prepare my home for cold weather?

To prepare your home for cold weather, ensure your heating system is working, insulate exposed pipes, and stock up on essential supplies like food and water.

What health risks are associated with cold weather?

Cold weather can increase the risk of hypothermia and frostbite, especially for vulnerable populations. It's important to check on elderly relatives and ensure everyone stays warm and safe.