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Valentine's Day, celebrated on 14 February, is expected to see a significant demand for roses in Nepal this year, with an anticipated consumption of 450,000 sticks of rose flowers throughout the week. The price per stick is projected to range from £1 to £1.50, leading to an estimated total market transaction of £5.62 million. Due to lower production during the winter season, around 70% of the roses will need to be imported to meet local demand.

Last updated: 02 February 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

This Valentine's Day, the Floriculture Association of Nepal has reported that approximately 450,000 sticks of roses will be consumed during the week, a notable increase from previous years. The local demand will be primarily filled by imports due to the low production of roses in winter. The association notes that only about 30% of the demand will be met by local production, with the remaining 70% relying on imported roses. This situation underscores the challenges faced in domestic flower production during the colder months.

Key takeaways

• 450,000 sticks of roses are expected to be consumed this Valentine's Day week.
• Prices per stick are likely to be between £1 and £1.50.
• Approximately 70% of the demand will be met through imports.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the beginning of February 2023, preparations for Valentine's Day have ramped up. The following key milestones outline the current situation:

• 14 February 2023: Valentine's Day celebrated with anticipated high demand for roses.
• February 2023: The Floriculture Association estimates the consumption of 450,000 sticks of roses.
• January 2023: Reports indicate a significant reliance on imported roses due to low local production.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The latest report from the Floriculture Association highlights the expectation of a record number of rose consumption this Valentine's Day week, with a 30% local production rate. This is a critical update, as it reflects ongoing challenges in local agriculture, particularly in the floriculture sector.

What was already established

Earlier assessments indicated that the bulk of rose consumption in previous years also relied heavily on imports, with only a fraction being locally produced. Last year, approximately 75% of the roses consumed were imported, with estimates for local production remaining consistent for this year.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For consumers in the UK, the implications of this reliance on imports may reflect in the pricing and availability of roses, as global supply chains can affect local markets. Seasonal fluctuations may also impact the ability to source quality flowers during peak demand periods.

Businesses and jobs

Florists and retailers in the UK may face challenges in sourcing roses, particularly if import restrictions or delays occur. This could affect pricing strategies and profitability within the floral industry, impacting jobs within this sector.

Policy and regulation

With the government implementing criteria for rose imports, businesses may need to navigate complex regulations to ensure compliance while meeting consumer demand. This could lead to further discussions around domestic flower production policies and support for local growers.

Numbers that matter

• 450,000: Expected sticks of roses to be consumed during Valentine's week.
• £5.62 million: Estimated market value of roses sold during this period.
• 30%: Estimated percentage of the total rose demand that will be met by local production.
• 70%: Percentage of roses expected to be imported to meet demand.
• £1 to £1.50: Projected price range per stick of rose.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Floriculture: The cultivation and management of flowering and ornamental plants.
• Stick: A single unit of a flower, often used in the floral trade to denote a single stem of a flower.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate weeks following Valentine's Day, consumers should monitor local flower availability and pricing as the market adjusts to the demand spike. Retailers may offer promotions or discounts on remaining stock.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the floral market stabilises post-Valentine's Day, focus may shift towards spring flowers. Consumers can anticipate changes in availability and pricing based on seasonal production cycles.

Signals to watch

• Import regulations and any changes that may affect flower availability.
• Price trends in floral markets as spring approaches.
• Local production statistics for seasonal flowers.

Practical guidance

Do

• Plan ahead for flower purchases during peak seasons like Valentine's Day.
• Support local florists to help boost local flower production.

Don’t

• Wait until the last minute to purchase flowers, as availability may be limited.
• Overlook the value of seasonal flowers that may be more readily available.

Checklist

• Check local flower availability before Valentine's Day.
• Compare prices among different retailers.
• Consider alternative flowers that may be in season.
• Support local growers when possible.
• Monitor import news that may affect flower prices.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Several uncertainties surround the floral market, particularly regarding the importation of roses due to regulatory criteria. Changes in global supply chains, especially in light of recent geopolitical events, could further complicate the availability and pricing of roses for consumers in the UK. Additionally, climate-related issues may affect local production, leading to greater dependency on imports in future seasons.

Bottom line

This Valentine's Day presents a significant challenge for both consumers and businesses in the floral sector, especially in terms of demand and supply dynamics. With a heavy reliance on imported roses, it's essential to stay informed about market trends and support local production where possible to ensure a sustainable floral industry in the long run.

FAQs

What is the expected demand for roses this Valentine's Day?

There is an anticipated demand of 450,000 sticks of roses for Valentine's Day this year.

How much will roses cost this Valentine's Day?

The projected price per stick of rose is expected to range from £1 to £1.50.

What percentage of the rose demand will be met by local production?

Approximately 30% of the total rose demand is expected to be supplied by local production, with the remaining 70% relying on imports.