Will Senator Mark Kelly Launch a Presidential Bid?

US Democratic Senator Mark Kelly has indicated that he will "seriously consider" a presidential run in 2028 while dealing with ongoing legal and personal challenges stemming from comments made by former President Donald Trump. Kelly, who faces threats and backlash over a video encouraging military personnel to refuse illegal orders, expressed his commitment to continuing this fight, highlighting the urgency of the current political climate.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Senator Mark Kelly is navigating a politically charged environment as he contemplates a potential presidential candidacy in 2028. The Arizona senator's recent statements come amid heightened tensions with Trump and the fallout from his public advocacy against illegal military orders. Following a controversial video release, Kelly, along with five other lawmakers, has faced accusations of "seditious behaviour," leading to serious personal security concerns due to death threats directed at him and his wife, Gabrielle Giffords. Despite these challenges, Kelly remains steadfast in addressing the issues at hand, underscoring a commitment to public service during tumultuous times.

Key takeaways

• Mark Kelly is considering a run for the presidency in 2028 amidst legal challenges from Donald Trump.
• Kelly and his wife have been receiving death threats due to Trump’s comments, necessitating constant security.
• The senator argues that his unique background as a military veteran and engineer sets him apart from other lawmakers.

Timeline: how we got here

The events leading to Kelly's current situation involve several key milestones:

• November 2022: Kelly releases a video urging military personnel to disobey illegal orders, coinciding with rising concerns over US military actions in South America.
• December 2022: Donald Trump publicly accuses Kelly and others of "seditious behaviour."
• January 2023: A grand jury declines to charge Kelly with seditious conspiracy, but the Pentagon attempts to demote his military rank.
• October 2023: Kelly discusses his potential presidential aspirations and the ongoing threats to his safety.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Kelly's recent comments reflect an escalation in both his personal security issues and his political ambitions. His candidacy considerations highlight his belief that he can contribute positively during challenging times for the nation.

What was already established

Prior to these developments, Kelly had already established himself as a prominent figure in the Senate, known for his military background and focus on issues affecting veterans and national security. His previous work has drawn both support and criticism, especially in light of his recent controversies.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The political turmoil in the US, including potential shifts in leadership, could indirectly affect UK consumers through changes in trade policies, international relations, and economic stability. Observers are keenly watching how US domestic politics may influence global markets.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses that operate internationally may need to prepare for changes in US policies, especially those related to defence and foreign relations. This can affect supply chains, hiring practices, and compliance requirements for UK companies with ties to the US.

Policy and regulation

Changes in US leadership could lead to significant shifts in policy, including climate change, trade agreements, and military engagements, all of which can impact UK regulatory landscapes and international cooperation.

Numbers that matter

• 61: Age of Senator Mark Kelly, highlighting a seasoned political figure considering a significant career move.
• 25: Years of military service Kelly has completed, setting a unique background compared to many of his colleagues.
• 6: Number of lawmakers involved in the controversy surrounding the illegal orders video, indicating a broader issue within US politics.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Seditious behaviour: Actions or speech inciting rebellion against the authority of a state.
• Grand jury: A group of citizens convened to decide if there is enough evidence to charge someone with a crime.
• Pentagon: The headquarters of the United States Department of Defense.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the coming weeks, observers should watch for any further developments in Kelly's legal battles and his discussions surrounding a presidential run, as well as potential responses from the Trump camp.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the 2024 election cycle heats up, Kelly's actions and statements may influence his standing among Democratic voters, especially as he positions himself in contrast to other potential candidates.

Signals to watch

• Public opinion polls regarding Kelly’s popularity among Democratic voters.
• Any public statements or actions from Trump in response to Kelly’s comments.
• Legislative actions involving military policies and veterans’ affairs that may affect Kelly's narrative.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in US politics, particularly those involving key figures like Mark Kelly.
• Engage in discussions about the implications of US foreign policy changes on global contexts.

Don’t

• Assume that political developments in the US have no relevance to the UK; the two nations are closely linked.
• Disregard the potential impact of political figures' backgrounds and experiences on their leadership styles and policies.

Checklist

• Monitor news regarding Kelly’s potential presidential run.
• Follow updates on legal actions involving him and the Trump administration.
• Consider the broader implications of US political dynamics for UK businesses and consumers.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, with many uncertainties surrounding both Kelly's future as a senator and his potential presidential candidacy. Trump's actions and any legal repercussions for Kelly could evolve rapidly, affecting public perception and political alliances. Additionally, the complex nature of US politics means that the consequences of these events could extend beyond immediate concerns, influencing broader geopolitical landscapes.

Bottom line

Mark Kelly’s contemplation of a presidential run amidst significant legal challenges and personal threats highlights a critical juncture in US politics. His unique background and experiences may resonate with voters looking for strong leadership during turbulent times. For UK observers, understanding these dynamics is essential as they may have far-reaching implications for international relations and economic ties.

FAQs

Is Mark Kelly officially running for president?

No, Mark Kelly has stated he is "seriously considering" a run for the presidency in 2028, but has not officially declared his candidacy.

What legal challenges is Mark Kelly facing?

Kelly is facing ongoing threats and legal scrutiny following a video in which he encouraged military personnel to refuse illegal orders, which led to accusations of seditious behaviour.

Why is Kelly receiving death threats?

The death threats towards Kelly and his wife have intensified following comments made by Donald Trump, which supporters perceived as incitement against the senator.