Will the Weather Deteriorate in Georgia on February 18-19?

According to the National Environmental Agency, significant rainfall is expected in Georgia from the end of the day on 18 February to the end of the day on 19 February, with strong winds in the west and a storm at sea rated at 4-6 on the Beaufort scale. Heavy snowfall is anticipated in mountainous regions, accompanied by fog, blizzards, and a risk of avalanches.

Last updated: 18 February 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The weather forecast for Georgia indicates a period of adverse conditions, particularly affecting transport and safety in mountainous areas. With heavy rainfall and strong winds, authorities warn that travel could be restricted on certain roads due to the potential for heavy snow and adverse visibility conditions.

Key takeaways

• Rainfall expected from 18–19 February, potentially heavy in places.
• Strong winds forecasted in the western regions.
• Heavy snowfall likely in highland areas with risks of avalanches.

Timeline: how we got here

The weather forecast has developed over the last week, with warnings issued on 15 February regarding the potential for severe weather. The anticipation of heavy rainfall and snowfall has been reinforced by meteorological data leading up to the weekend, prompting the National Environmental Agency to issue alerts for specific regions.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Today’s forecast highlights the immediate risk of severe weather, with specific warnings for blizzards, strong winds, and potential transportation restrictions. The forecast has been updated to reflect the severity of the expected conditions.

What was already established

Previous forecasts had indicated a change in weather patterns, but the current warnings provide a more detailed assessment of potential impacts on travel and safety in mountainous regions.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the primary focus is on Georgia, UK residents with interests in travel or business in the region may need to stay informed about evolving weather conditions that could impact flights and logistics.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses operating in areas prone to severe weather must prepare for possible disruptions. This includes ensuring the safety of employees and the continuity of operations during adverse weather conditions.

Policy and regulation

Local authorities may implement emergency protocols to manage the effects of the weather, including road closures and emergency services deployment in affected areas.

Numbers that matter

• 4-6 Beaufort scale: Indicates storm conditions at sea.
• Medium risk level for landslide and mudflow processes in hilly and mountainous areas.
• Potential for significant water level increases in rivers across Georgia.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Beaufort scale: A system for estimating wind speed based on observed sea conditions.
• Avalanche: A mass of snow, ice, and rocks that falls rapidly down a mountainside.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Expect ongoing updates from meteorological authorities as conditions develop. Residents in affected areas should prepare for potential disruptions.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Monitor for any long-term impacts on infrastructure and travel, particularly in regions prone to landslides or flooding.

Signals to watch

• Updates from the National Environmental Agency regarding weather alerts.
• Reports on transportation disruptions and safety advisories.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed by following local weather updates.
• Prepare emergency supplies in case of travel disruptions.

Don’t

• Underestimate the impact of severe weather on travel and safety.
• Ignore local advisories or restrictions on movement.

Checklist

• Check road conditions before travel.
• Have a communication plan with family and friends.
• Prepare your vehicle for winter conditions if travelling.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The accuracy of weather forecasts can vary, and conditions may change rapidly. The potential for severe weather necessitates caution, and individuals should remain vigilant. Current estimates are based on available meteorological data and may be subject to change as new information becomes available.

Bottom line

The upcoming weather conditions pose significant risks for Georgia, particularly in mountainous areas. Residents and travellers should remain informed and prepared for possible disruptions and ensure safety measures are in place.

FAQs

What is the expected weather during this period?

Heavy rainfall and snow are expected, especially in mountainous regions, with strong winds and potential transportation restrictions.

How can I prepare for severe weather in Georgia?

Stay informed about weather updates, prepare emergency supplies, and ensure your vehicle is ready for winter conditions.

What should I do if travel is restricted?

Follow local advisories and be prepared to adjust travel plans. Consider alternative arrangements if necessary.