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The administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Philippines is poised to take a more confrontational stance towards former President Rodrigo Duterte, with whom he has been engaged in a significant political feud. This shift in dynamics could reshape the political landscape, impacting governance and policy directions.

Last updated: 02 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The political climate in the Philippines is becoming increasingly charged as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. prepares for a more adversarial relationship with former President Rodrigo Duterte. This shift is driven by ongoing tensions from Duterte's controversial policies and actions during his time in office, particularly surrounding human rights issues. With Marcos Jr. now firmly in power, analysts predict that his administration will actively distance itself from Duterte’s legacy, which could lead to more pronounced conflicts in governance.

Key takeaways

• Marcos Jr. is expected to adopt a more hostile approach toward Duterte.
• Political tensions are rooted in Duterte's controversial legacy, particularly human rights.
• This shift could lead to significant changes in policy and governance.

Timeline: how we got here

The current situation stems from a series of events that have unfolded over the last few years:

• 2016: Rodrigo Duterte is elected President, initiating controversial policies, including the war on drugs.
• 2022: Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is elected President, indicating a shift in the political landscape.
• 2023: Tensions escalate between the two leaders as Marcos Jr. begins to openly critique Duterte's policies.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent statements from Marcos Jr.'s administration suggest a clear pivot away from Duterte's strategies, particularly concerning drug policy and human rights. These comments signal a desire to reshape the narrative and governance style that characterised the previous administration.

What was already established

Duterte's presidency was marked by significant international criticism over human rights abuses, particularly in relation to his war on drugs. Marcos Jr. has maintained a more diplomatic approach in international relations but is now expected to confront the legacy of his predecessor more directly.

Impact for the Philippines

Consumers and households

This political shift could affect everyday Filipinos, especially those who have been impacted by Duterte's policies. A more hostile stance may lead to increased scrutiny on enforcement practices and potentially shift funding away from controversial programs.

Businesses and jobs

Friction between the two leaders could create uncertainty in the business environment, particularly in sectors closely tied to government contracts and initiatives launched under Duterte. Businesses may need to adapt to new policies that emerge from this confrontation.

Policy and regulation

Marcos Jr.'s administration may prioritize reforms aimed at distancing itself from Duterte's legacy, potentially leading to new legislation and regulatory changes. This could involve revisiting policies on law enforcement, drug rehabilitation, and human rights protections.

Numbers that matter

• Over 30,000 deaths were reported during Duterte’s war on drugs, according to human rights groups.
• Marcos Jr. won the presidency with over 31 million votes, indicating significant public support.
• Estimated 4 million Filipinos are affected by drug-related issues, underscoring the need for effective policy reform.

Definitions and jargon buster

• War on Drugs: A campaign led by the Philippine government during Duterte's presidency aimed at curbing illegal drug use and trafficking.
• Human Rights: Rights inherent to all human beings, including the right to life, liberty, and personal security.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Expect immediate policy statements and potential shifts in law enforcement practices as the Marcos administration seeks to clarify its stance on issues linked to Duterte’s legacy.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Monitor developments in governance and potential reforms, particularly those relating to drug policy and human rights protections. The administration’s direction in these areas will be indicative of its long-term strategy.

Signals to watch

• Changes in government policy announcements related to law enforcement and drug rehabilitation.
• Public responses to Marcos Jr.'s distancing from Duterte’s policies.
• International reactions, especially from human rights organisations and foreign governments.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about new policies and their implications for social issues.
• Engage in community discussions about the impacts of governance changes.

Don’t

• Ignore developments in public policy that may affect your community.
• Assume continuity in policies without considering the new administration's stance.

Checklist

• Review recent government announcements regarding law enforcement.
• Assess your understanding of the impacts of drug policy on local communities.
• Follow news on human rights advocacy and its evolution under Marcos Jr.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

There are significant uncertainties regarding how the Marcos administration will implement changes. Political opposition and public sentiment may influence the effectiveness of reforms. Additionally, potential backlash from Duterte's supporters could complicate governance moving forward.

Bottom line

The evolving relationship between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former President Rodrigo Duterte is set to transform the political landscape in the Philippines. As tensions rise, the implications for policy, governance, and public sentiment will become increasingly significant, necessitating close attention from citizens and stakeholders alike.

FAQs

What prompted the feud between Marcos Jr. and Duterte?

The feud arises from differing governance styles and policies, particularly regarding Duterte's controversial legacy in human rights and drug enforcement.

How will this impact the Philippines' political landscape?

This shift may lead to significant policy changes and a reassessment of Duterte-era initiatives, impacting governance and public sentiment.

What should citizens be aware of moving forward?

Citizens should stay informed about policy changes and engage in discussions regarding their implications for communities, particularly concerning law enforcement and human rights.