Will Sara Duterte Run for President in 2028?

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte has officially announced her candidacy for the presidency in the 2028 elections, marking a significant moment in the country's political landscape. This declaration comes amidst a power struggle with current President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., with whom she has had a tumultuous political relationship since their alliance in the 2022 elections. With the presidential vote two years away, Duterte's early campaigning reflects the Philippines' culture of personality-driven politics, where contenders often lay groundwork long before election day.

Last updated: 24 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Sara Duterte's announcement to run for president has ignited discussions about the future of Philippine politics, particularly given the backdrop of her strained relationship with Marcos. Their alliance, once seen as a formidable force in 2022, has since deteriorated, especially after a series of political events that have tested their partnership. As Duterte positions herself for the upcoming election, the implications for governance and party dynamics are significant, especially in a political environment characterised by intense rivalries and shifting loyalties.

Key takeaways

Sara Duterte has declared her candidacy for the 2028 presidential elections.
Her announcement follows a power struggle with President Marcos Jr., with whom she previously allied.
Marcos is ineligible for re-election, opening the field for Duterte as a prominent contender.
The political landscape is shaped by personal loyalties and historical ties, particularly to former President Rodrigo Duterte.
The upcoming election will be pivotal for the future direction of the Philippines.

Timeline: how we got here

The events leading to Sara Duterte's presidential candidacy can be traced through a series of significant milestones:

2022, May: Sara Duterte and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. win the presidential election in a landslide, running on a shared ticket.
March 2025: Tensions escalate when Marcos permits the International Criminal Court to arrest Rodrigo Duterte, Sara’s father, leading to severe political fallout.
May 2025: A mid-term legislative vote favours candidates endorsed by the Duterte family, signalling a shift in political allegiance among the electorate.
October 2023: Sara Duterte announces her candidacy for the 2028 elections, solidifying her position as a leading contender.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Sara Duterte's formal announcement to run for president has been confirmed, representing a new chapter in Philippine politics as she aims to consolidate her family's political legacy. Her candidacy is particularly notable in light of current President Marcos's ineligibility for re-election, which creates a power vacuum that she intends to fill.

What was already established

Prior to this announcement, the political relationship between Duterte and Marcos had already begun to fray, especially following the controversies surrounding Rodrigo Duterte's legal challenges. Their initial partnership in the 2022 election had shown the potential for a strong alliance, but subsequent events have highlighted deep divisions that could affect electoral strategies moving forward.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the direct impact on UK consumers may be limited, the political climate in the Philippines can influence global perceptions of governance and stability in Southeast Asia. Changes in leadership could affect trade relations and diplomatic ties, which are of interest to UK businesses operating in the region.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, particularly those with interests in the Philippines, Sara Duterte's candidacy could signal a continuation of her father's hardline policies, especially regarding crime and governance. This might impact foreign investment and operational strategies for firms in sectors such as security and infrastructure.

Policy and regulation

The upcoming elections may lead to significant shifts in policy, especially if Duterte seeks to distance herself from Marcos's administration. The UK government may need to adjust its diplomatic approach depending on the outcome, particularly concerning human rights and international law, given Rodrigo Duterte's controversial legacy.

Numbers that matter

2022 Election Victory: Duterte and Marcos won with a record 61% of the vote.
2025 Legislative Vote: Candidates backed by Duterte secured a majority, with 70% of seats won.
ICC Detention: Rodrigo Duterte is currently detained, awaiting trial, which could last for years.
Public Opinion: Recent polls show Sara Duterte with a 55% approval rating among voters, indicating strong support.
Political Feud Duration: The fallout from the Marcos-Duterte alliance has lasted over 18 months.

Definitions and jargon buster

ICC: International Criminal Court, an international tribunal that prosecutes individuals for crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide.
Political Heir: A person who is positioned to continue the political legacy or leadership within a family or party.
Personality Politics: A political system where candidates are elected based on their personal appeal rather than political platforms or party affiliation.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers will closely monitor the reactions from both Marcos's camp and potential challengers as the political landscape shifts. Expect strategic positioning from other political figures as they gauge Duterte's rising influence.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, campaigning will intensify as Duterte builds her platform. Key issues such as governance, economic recovery, and national security will likely dominate her agenda. Voter engagement strategies will be crucial as she seeks to consolidate support.

Signals to watch

Polling data reflecting public sentiment toward Duterte's candidacy.
Responses from Marcos and other political allies regarding their future strategies.
Emergence of new challengers for the presidency as the election date approaches.

Practical guidance

Do

Follow the developments in Philippine politics closely, especially as the election approaches.
Engage with information from credible sources to understand the electoral dynamics.
Consider the implications of Duterte's policies on international relations.

Don’t

Assume the election outcome will be straightforward; the political landscape is volatile.
Disregard the potential influence of public sentiment and grassroots movements.
Overlook the legal challenges facing Rodrigo Duterte and how they could affect Sara's campaign.

Checklist

Stay updated on major announcements from candidates.
Track shifts in public opinion polls regarding Duterte's candidacy.
Evaluate the impact of international relations on the Philippines' political climate.
Watch for potential policy changes from the current administration.
Consider the role of social media in shaping campaign narratives.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the political landscape continues to evolve, uncertainties abound regarding the reactions from key political players and the electorate. The ongoing legal issues surrounding Rodrigo Duterte could also influence public perception of Sara Duterte. Furthermore, the Philippines' unique political environment, characterised by a history of abrupt changes and volatile alliances, poses risks to any predictions about the election outcome.

Bottom line

Sara Duterte's announcement to run for president in 2028 is a pivotal moment for the Philippines, signalling a potential re-emergence of the Duterte political dynasty. As the country navigates a complex political landscape marked by personality-driven politics and historical legacies, the unfolding events will shape not only the future of governance in the Philippines but also its international relations.

FAQs

What does Sara Duterte's candidacy mean for the Philippines?

Sara Duterte's candidacy could lead to a continuation of her family's political legacy and policies, impacting governance and international relations significantly.

How might her relationship with Marcos affect the election?

The strained relationship between Duterte and Marcos could create a competitive political environment, influencing voter sentiment and party dynamics as the election approaches.

What are the potential legal implications for Rodrigo Duterte?

Rodrigo Duterte's ongoing legal battles with the International Criminal Court could affect public perception of his daughter and her campaign, complicating her political strategy.