Can Scotland Break the Trend and Compete for the Title with a Win in Wales?

Scotland's impressive victory over England has raised expectations for their upcoming match against Wales, with players acknowledging the need to build on their success. With a history of struggling to follow up on victories in the Six Nations, the Scots are determined to avoid past mistakes. Facing a struggling Welsh side, Scotland aims to solidify their place as title contenders.

Last updated: 11 March 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As Scotland gears up for their match against Wales at the Principality Stadium on Saturday, there is a palpable sense of anticipation mixed with caution. Following their Calcutta Cup triumph, the focus shifts to whether they can replicate their success against a Welsh team that has struggled in their opening matches. Scotland's players, including second row Scott Cummings, are aware of the historical precedent that often follows a high-profile victory, which adds to the pressure to perform again.

Key takeaways

Scotland must overcome the challenge of backing up their recent win over England.
Wales is currently struggling, having lost both of their opening matches in the Six Nations.
Scott Cummings emphasises the need to remain focused and treat every moment of the match as crucial.

Timeline: how we got here

The journey to this crucial match has seen several key moments unfold:

2000: Scotland's first Six Nations victory against England.
2021: Scotland defeats England again but fails to maintain momentum in subsequent matches.
2023-03-04: Scotland's sensational win over England in the Six Nations.
2023-03-11: Match against Wales, where Scotland aims to continue their form.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Scotland's players, particularly Cummings, have voiced their commitment to not repeat past failures of failing to back up victories. This sentiment reflects a more determined mindset within the squad as they prepare to face an under-pressure Welsh side.

What was already established

Historically, Scotland has struggled to maintain momentum after significant wins. Out of their eight prior victories against England in the Six Nations, six have been followed by losses in their next match. This pattern is a cause for concern and is at the forefront of Scotland's preparations.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

Scotland's performance in the Six Nations has significant implications for sports fans, with increasing interest in rugby leading to heightened engagement from local businesses, hospitality sectors, and the tourism industry, particularly in cities like Edinburgh and Cardiff.

Businesses and jobs

The rugby season typically stimulates business activity, especially in hospitality and retail sectors. Success in the tournament can lead to increased patronage in pubs and restaurants, which are often filled with fans during match days.

Policy and regulation

As the tournament continues, there may be discussions around sports funding, youth engagement in rugby, and the promotion of health and fitness through sports initiatives in schools and communities across the UK.

Numbers that matter

8 - The number of times Scotland has defeated England in the Six Nations.
13 - The consecutive Six Nations defeats Wales has faced, illustrating their struggling form.
102 - Points conceded by Wales in their first two matches this year, highlighting defensive woes.
19 - Total points scored by Wales in the same two matches, showcasing their offensive difficulties.

Definitions and jargon buster

Calcutta Cup: A trophy contested annually between England and Scotland as part of the Six Nations Championship.
Six Nations: An annual rugby union competition involving England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, France, and Italy.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Scotland must focus on consolidating their performance against Wales, ensuring that they maintain momentum and avoid complacency.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Should Scotland achieve a victory against Wales, they will need to prepare for subsequent matches with a strong mindset, aiming for a title challenge in the Six Nations.

Signals to watch

Scotland's ability to maintain their form in upcoming fixtures.
Wales' performance trajectory following their early losses.
Player fitness and squad depth as the tournament progresses.

Practical guidance

Do

Follow the match closely to track Scotland's performance.
Engage with local businesses supporting the rugby community.

Don’t

Assume a victory is guaranteed against Wales despite their struggles.
Overlook the emotional and physical toll of international matches on players.

Checklist

Review Scotland's recent performances for patterns of success and failure.
Consider the implications of player fitness and strategy adjustments.
Stay informed about Wales' player changes and tactics leading up to the match.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

It is essential to acknowledge that international rugby can be unpredictable. While Scotland's recent success against England is promising, past patterns suggest that they may not continue this form. Furthermore, Wales, despite their current struggles, could rally in front of their home crowd, making this match a potentially close contest.

Bottom line

Scotland faces a crucial test in maintaining their momentum against Wales. To secure a win, they must learn from the past and ensure that they approach the match with the same intensity and focus they displayed in their victory over England.

FAQs

What do Scotland need to do to win against Wales?

To secure a victory, Scotland must maintain their intensity, avoid complacency, and learn from their past experiences of failing to back up previous wins.

How has Wales performed in the Six Nations so far?

Wales has struggled significantly, sitting at the bottom of the table after two matches, scoring only 19 points and conceding 102.

What historical patterns exist for Scotland after beating England?

Historically, Scotland has struggled to follow up victories over England with subsequent wins, having lost six out of seven times after such victories.