Will Keir Starmer Succumb to Wokeism and Surrender the Chagos Islands?

Former US President Donald Trump has recently expressed conflicting views on whether Sir Keir Starmer should yield to what he terms “wokeism” and hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, following the UK government’s plan to lease the Diego Garcia military base for £35 billion over the next century. This change in stance comes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, highlighting the geopolitical significance of the islands.

Last updated: 12 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The situation surrounding the Chagos Islands has taken a dramatic turn, with Trump publicly opposing the UK’s decision to enter into a long-term lease agreement with Mauritius. A day after the US State Department affirmed its support for the UK-Mauritius agreement, Trump warned that ceding control over Diego Garcia would be a significant error for Prime Minister Starmer. His comments come amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, where military activity is reportedly increasing in response to threats from Iran.

Key takeaways

Trump's latest comments contradict his previous support for the Chagos agreement.
The UK plans to lease Diego Garcia from Mauritius for £35 billion over 100 years.
US-Iran relations are tense, with potential for military action.
The Chagos Islands have been a point of contention since their detachment from Mauritius in 1965.
Calls for Sir Keir Starmer to abandon the deal are growing within the UK political landscape.

Timeline: how we got here

The Chagos Islands have been at the centre of a sovereignty dispute for decades. Here’s a brief timeline of key events:

1965: The Chagos Islands were detached from Mauritius, which gained independence.
1966: The US established a military base on Diego Garcia, expelling the local Chagossian population.
February 2023: Trump initially supports Starmer’s deal, calling it “the best he could make.”
Early October 2023: Trump criticises the deal, asserting it would be a mistake for the UK.
October 2023: The US State Department endorses the leasing agreement with Mauritius.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Trump's recent remarks suggest a significant flip-flop in his position on the Chagos Islands, indicating he now perceives the leasing agreement as a liability rather than an opportunity. He has expressed fears that losing control of Diego Garcia could hinder US-UK military cooperation, particularly in potential conflicts in the Middle East.

What was already established

Prior to this week, Trump had shown support for the leasing agreement, describing it as a sensible arrangement. This earlier endorsement was seen as a continuation of the US's historical backing of the UK’s military presence in the region. The Chagossian community, however, has long contested the legality and morality of the UK's control over the islands.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The potential implications for UK consumers and households are largely indirect but significant. The leasing agreement could lead to increased military spending, which might affect budget allocations for public services. Additionally, any deterioration in US-UK relations could impact security cooperation and trade agreements.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses linked to the military and defence sectors may face uncertainty depending on the outcome of this geopolitical debate. The leasing agreement provides a long-term perspective for defence contracts but could be jeopardised by political shifts and public sentiment against perceived colonial legacies.

Policy and regulation

From a policy perspective, the UK government may face increased pressure to reconsider its stance on the Chagos Islands. The political ramifications of Trump's comments could lead to debates in Parliament, especially among opposition parties advocating for the rights of the Chagossian people.

Numbers that matter

£35 billion: The estimated cost of leasing Diego Garcia over 100 years.
1965: Year the Chagos Islands were detached from Mauritius.
100: The number of years proposed for the lease agreement.
90%: The likelihood of military action in Iran suggested by Trump’s adviser.
50 years: The duration since the Chagossians were forcibly removed from their homeland.

Definitions and jargon buster

Chagos Islands: A group of islands in the Indian Ocean, currently under British control and home to a US military base.
Diego Garcia: The largest island in the Chagos archipelago, hosting a significant US-UK military facility.
Wokeism: A term used to describe a perceived trend of social justice activism and political correctness.
Lease agreement: A contract granting one party the right to use property owned by another for a specified period in exchange for payment.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, UK policymakers will need to assess the public and political reaction to Trump’s comments. Potential discussions in Parliament may lead to a reassessment of the Chagos agreement.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East evolve, the UK may need to clarify its defence strategy and military commitments in light of US positions. This might influence defence spending and international relations.

Signals to watch

Parliamentary debates regarding the Chagos Islands.
Statements from the UK government on military strategy and foreign policy.
Public opinion polls regarding the Chagos agreement and military presence.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments surrounding the Chagos Islands and related political discourse.
Engage with local representatives to voice concerns or support regarding UK foreign policy.
Monitor news from both the US and UK regarding military actions and agreements.

Don’t

Assume that the current political climate won’t change; be prepared for shifts in public opinion.
Ignore the historical context of the Chagos Islands, as it informs current debates.
Disregard the implications of US-UK relations on domestic policy.

Checklist

Understand the historical background of the Chagos Islands dispute.
Follow updates on US-Iran relations and their potential impacts on UK security.
Consider the broader implications of military agreements on the UK’s international standing.
Evaluate the implications of public sentiment on political decisions regarding the Chagos Islands.
Stay aware of responses from human rights organisations regarding the Chagossian community.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

It is essential to recognise the complexity surrounding the Chagos Islands issue, which involves historical grievances and international law. The UK government’s position may shift in response to domestic and international pressures. Moreover, the ramifications of any military action in the Middle East could further complicate the situation. The evolving dynamics of US politics, including Trump's influence, also introduce uncertainties into the future of the Chagos Islands and UK foreign policy.

Bottom line

The ongoing debate over the Chagos Islands reflects broader tensions in UK-US relations and has significant implications for domestic politics in the UK. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, UK policymakers must navigate the intricacies of historical claims, military strategy, and public sentiment. The question remains: what will be the ultimate fate of the Chagos Islands, and how will this shape the future of UK foreign policy?

FAQs

What is the Chagos Islands dispute?

The Chagos Islands dispute involves the UK’s sovereignty over the islands, which were separated from Mauritius in 1965, leading to the expulsion of the Chagossian population to establish a military base.

Why are the Chagos Islands important to the UK and the US?

Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, hosts a crucial military base for US and UK operations, particularly in the Indian Ocean region, and plays a strategic role in military planning.

What does "wokeism" refer to in this context?

"Wokeism" refers to social and political movements advocating for social justice and equality, which some perceive as a threat to traditional values and institutions.