Will Alba Party Skip the Scottish Parliament Election?

The Alba Party, a pro-independence political group in Scotland, is facing significant financial difficulties, which have raised doubts about its ability to contest the upcoming Holyrood election in May. Party leader Kenny MacAskill has expressed concerns about the party's viability and stated that they may not be able to register for the election due to their "perilous financial position."

Last updated: 26 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Alba Party is currently in a precarious financial situation, which has led to speculation about its future just two years after its formation. Kenny MacAskill, the party's leader, indicated that the party might not be able to register for the Holyrood election set for May 2024, as they face challenges in meeting financial obligations and submitting necessary accounts to the Electoral Commission. MacAskill's email to party members conveyed a sense of urgency, highlighting the immediate crisis and questioning the party's overall viability.

Key takeaways

• Kenny MacAskill has stated the Alba Party is unlikely to contest the upcoming Holyrood election due to financial issues.
• The party has faced internal conflicts and leadership challenges since the death of its founder, Alex Salmond.
• Some party members are committed to continuing the Alba Party's mission, despite leadership doubts.

Timeline: how we got here

The Alba Party was launched in March 2021 by former Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Alex Salmond. The key milestones include:

• March 2021: Alba Party is founded with the aim of creating a supermajority for independence in the Scottish Parliament.
• May 2021: The party fails to win any seats in the election, securing only 1.7% of the regional vote.
• October 2024: The unexpected death of Alex Salmond prompts a leadership contest, with MacAskill emerging as the new leader.
• October 2022: Allegations of irregularities in the party's finances lead to a police investigation following a complaint from May.
• October 2023: MacAskill expresses doubts about the party's continued viability amid worsening financial conditions.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

This week, MacAskill's email revealed the party's dire financial status and the likelihood of not being able to register for the May election. He mentioned the party's struggle to meet financial obligations, including staff wages and necessary submissions to the Electoral Commission.

What was already established

Since its inception, the Alba Party has been marked by internal strife, particularly following Salmond's death and the subsequent leadership contest. The party has faced ongoing scrutiny regarding its financial management, especially after police investigations prompted by concerns from former staff members.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The potential dissolution of the Alba Party may impact pro-independence sentiment in Scotland, especially among voters seeking a strong alternative to the SNP. If the party cannot contest the upcoming elections, it could lead to a weakened push for independence, affecting political discourse and campaign strategies across Scotland.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the Alba Party could have implications for market sentiment, particularly in sectors reliant on political stability and support for independence. If the party is unable to operate effectively, it may hinder efforts to mobilise grassroots campaigns that could influence local economies.

Policy and regulation

The party's struggles come amid broader discussions on Scotland's political landscape, especially regarding independence. If Alba is unable to register for the upcoming election, it could shift the balance of power within the Scottish Parliament, potentially affecting legislative priorities and policy discussions.

Numbers that matter

• 1.7% - The percentage of the regional vote secured by Alba in the 2021 election.
• 2 - The number of MPs who defected from the SNP to join Alba shortly after its formation.
• 1 - The number of leadership contests since Alex Salmond's death, culminating in MacAskill's election as leader.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Alba Party: A pro-independence political party in Scotland founded by Alex Salmond.
• Holyrood: The Scottish Parliament located in Edinburgh, responsible for devolved governmental functions.
• SNP: Scottish National Party, the dominant political party in Scotland advocating for independence.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the Alba Party must assess its financial standing and consider options for restructuring or seeking additional funding. MacAskill's upcoming update will be crucial for determining the party's direction.

Medium term (1–6 months)

If the party manages to resolve its financial issues, it may need to focus on rebuilding its membership and electoral strategy ahead of future elections, including the next Holyrood election in 2026.

Signals to watch

• Updates from MacAskill regarding the party's financial status and potential re-registration for the election.
• Membership engagement and responses to leadership decisions, particularly from key figures like Christina Hendry.
• Developments in the police investigation into financial irregularities.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the party's financial updates and leadership decisions.
• Engage with fellow members to discuss the party's future and potential strategies.

Don’t

• Ignore the implications of the party's financial situation on the independence movement.
• Assume the party's struggles are isolated; they reflect broader political dynamics in Scotland.

Checklist

• Review the latest communications from party leadership.
• Evaluate financial contributions to support party activities.
• Engage in discussions about the party's future with other members.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the Alba Party grapples with financial difficulties, various uncertainties loom. The ongoing police investigation into financial irregularities could yield further complications, impacting the party's reputation and operational capacity. Additionally, the internal conflicts may hinder cohesive decision-making, raising questions about the party's long-term viability.

Bottom line

The Alba Party stands at a crossroads, facing critical financial challenges that threaten its future. With the Holyrood election approaching, the party's ability to navigate these difficulties will be pivotal in determining its role in Scotland's ongoing pursuit of independence.

FAQs

Will the Alba Party contest the upcoming Holyrood election?

Currently, the Alba Party's leader has indicated that it is unlikely they will be able to register for the election due to severe financial challenges.

What factors contributed to the Alba Party's financial issues?

Factors include a lack of electoral success, internal conflicts, and ongoing investigations into financial irregularities, which have strained resources.

What is the future of the Alba Party?

The future remains uncertain, with some members advocating for its continuation despite leadership doubts. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining the party's direction.