Who Was El Mencho, Mexico's Most Notorious Criminal?

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, better known as 'El Mencho', has been a central figure in Mexican organised crime as the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). His recent killing is seen as a significant victory for both Mexican and US authorities, potentially disrupting the cartel's operations. However, immediate violent backlash from El Mencho's associates has erupted across Mexico, raising questions about the future stability of the CJNG and the broader implications for public safety and international relations.

Last updated: 29 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The death of El Mencho has triggered a surge of violence across Mexico, particularly in states where the CJNG operates. Authorities have reported roadblocks and arson attacks in several regions, including Jalisco, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas, indicating swift retaliation from cartel loyalists. This unrest poses immediate concerns for public safety, especially in urban areas like Guadalajara and Mexico City, where civilians are caught in the crossfire. The Mexican military claims that El Mencho's removal could weaken the CJNG, but the rapid escalation of violence suggests that the cartel's structure remains intact, at least in the short term.

Key takeaways

• El Mencho's death is regarded as a victory for Mexican and US authorities.
• Violent reprisals by the CJNG have been reported across multiple states.
• The CJNG remains a powerful force despite the loss of its leader.

Timeline: how we got here

The rise and fall of El Mencho and the CJNG can be traced through several critical events:

• 1980s: El Mencho begins his criminal career in the marijuana fields of Michoacán.
• 1990s: He moves to the US, where he becomes involved in narcotics and is arrested several times.
• 2000s: After being deported to Mexico, he rises through the ranks of the Milenio Cartel.
• 2010: The CJNG is formed, with El Mencho at the helm after the Milenio Cartel fractures.
• 2016: The CJNG becomes a dominant force, capitalising on the collapse of the Sinaloa Cartel.
• October 2023: El Mencho is reported dead, triggering violent reprisals from his cartel.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The immediate aftermath of El Mencho's death has led to widespread unrest, with reports of violence in cities across Mexico. This has included roadblocks and arson attacks, reflecting the cartel’s attempt to assert its power even in the face of leadership loss.

What was already established

El Mencho has long been known as a brutal leader who transformed the CJNG into one of the most powerful criminal organisations in Mexico. His leadership was marked by violent territorial expansion and the diversification of illegal activities, particularly in the drug trade.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the violence in Mexico may seem distant from the UK, there are implications for global drug trafficking routes. Increased cartel activity could disrupt drug supply chains, potentially affecting availability and prices in Europe.

Businesses and jobs

Tourism in Mexico is likely to suffer due to the violence, which could impact UK tourists planning to travel to affected areas. Additionally, the instability may deter foreign investment in Mexican businesses, which could have broader economic repercussions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its diplomatic and security strategies concerning Mexico, particularly as the US and Mexican governments work more closely to combat drug trafficking. This could involve enhanced intelligence sharing and cooperation on security measures.

Numbers that matter

• 30 years: El Mencho’s age when he was deported back to Mexico after serving time in the US.
• 10+ countries: The global reach of the CJNG’s drug trafficking operations.
• 8: The number of states witnessing violent reprisals following El Mencho's death.

Definitions and jargon buster

• CJNG: Jalisco New Generation Cartel, one of Mexico's most powerful drug trafficking organisations.
• Transnational crime: Criminal activities that cross national borders, often involving drugs, human trafficking, and arms smuggling.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of El Mencho's death, observers should monitor the level of violence, particularly in cartel strongholds. Law enforcement's response will be crucial in determining whether the CJNG can maintain control or if internal strife will emerge.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the coming months, it's likely that rival factions within the CJNG will vie for power. This could lead to further violence as different groups attempt to assert dominance, affecting stability in regions where the cartel operates.

Signals to watch

• Increased violence or territorial disputes among cartel factions.
• Changes in drug trafficking routes or prices in the UK and Europe.
• Government responses to cartel violence and any new security measures implemented.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in Mexico regarding cartel violence.
• Consider avoiding travel to areas known for cartel activity.

Don’t

• Assume that El Mencho's death will lead to a long-term reduction in cartel activity.
• Engage in any illicit drug use, as the situation remains volatile.

Checklist

• Review travel advisories for Mexico and specific regions affected by cartel violence.
• Stay updated on news regarding drug trafficking and cartel activities.
• Engage in discussions about drug policy and its implications in international forums.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, with many unknowns about the future of the CJNG and the potential for violence. While El Mencho's death is a significant event, it is uncertain whether this will lead to a lasting impact on the cartel or a power vacuum that could trigger further conflict among rival factions. Analysts should exercise caution when interpreting these developments, as the dynamics of organised crime are often unpredictable.

Bottom line

El Mencho's death marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing battle against organised crime in Mexico. While it may initially appear as a victory for authorities, the violent backlash from the CJNG highlights the complexities and challenges that remain. The UK audience should remain aware of the broader implications for international drug trafficking and public safety, as the situation continues to evolve.

FAQs

What does El Mencho's death mean for the CJNG?

El Mencho's death could potentially weaken the CJNG, but the group's structure suggests that leadership may quickly adapt or replace him, maintaining their operations.

How has the Mexican government responded to the violence following El Mencho's death?

The Mexican government has deployed military forces to manage the unrest and is monitoring the situation closely to prevent further escalation of violence.

What are the implications for UK travellers to Mexico?

UK travellers should be cautious and stay informed about the evolving security situation in Mexico, particularly in regions known for cartel activity.