Will Violence Escalate After Recent Mexican Cartel Rampage?

The recent violent rampage in Guadalajara, Mexico, highlights the ongoing power struggle and chaos instigated by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) following the death of its leader, Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera. This situation raises significant concerns about public safety, especially with the Fifa World Cup approaching, as many locals fear for their security in the wake of escalating cartel violence.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In the aftermath of the CJNG's violent response to El Mencho's death, Guadalajara is grappling with visible destruction and heightened fear among residents. Burnt vehicles and damaged businesses mark the streets as the government attempts to project an image of stability through increased security presence. However, many locals remain sceptical, opting to stay indoors rather than risk potential violence.

Key takeaways

Guadalajara is recovering from a violent outburst linked to the CJNG.
The death of El Mencho has intensified fears of further cartel violence.
Local businesses are struggling to stay open amid the chaos.
The upcoming World Cup raises questions about safety in the region.
Residents are calling for more than just security; they want lasting solutions to violence and poverty.

Timeline: how we got here

The violence in Guadalajara can be traced back to the broader context of Mexico's drug war, initiated in 2006 under President Felipe Calderón. Major events include:

2006: President Felipe Calderón launches a military campaign against drug cartels.
2015: CJNG emerges as one of Mexico's most powerful cartels.
2023: El Mencho is reportedly killed, leading to a violent backlash from the CJNG.
October 2023: Guadalajara experiences widespread violence and unrest following El Mencho's death.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The current situation has escalated rapidly since the death of El Mencho, with CJNG's retaliatory violence resulting in multiple fatalities and widespread destruction in Guadalajara. Reports of ransacked stores and burnt vehicles have surfaced, creating an atmosphere of intimidation and fear.

What was already established

The ongoing violence in Mexico, particularly in Jalisco state, has been a long-standing issue, deeply rooted in the power struggles of drug cartels. The CJNG's reputation as a brutal force has been solidified over the years, with many experts warning that targeting cartel leaders often leads to increased violence as other factions vie for control.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The violence in Guadalajara impacts not only local residents but also international visitors, including those planning to attend the World Cup. Concerns over safety may deter tourists, affecting local economies and businesses reliant on tourism.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses in Guadalajara are facing challenges as safety concerns lead to closures and reduced foot traffic. The ongoing violence could disrupt supply chains and deter investment in the region, exacerbating economic instability.

Policy and regulation

The Mexican government's attempts to restore order through increased military presence may not address the root causes of violence. Upcoming discussions on public safety and cartel violence are crucial for establishing effective policies that prioritise community safety and long-term solutions.

Numbers that matter

60 funerals being organised for victims of the recent violence.
20 years of ongoing conflict between the government and drug cartels since the launch of the drug war.
Thousands of people reported missing in Mexico, most since 2007.
1 major crime syndicate leader's death leading to further violence and instability.
6 months until the Fifa World Cup, raising concerns about safety for international attendees.

Definitions and jargon buster

CJNG: Jalisco New Generation Cartel, one of the most powerful drug cartels in Mexico.
Capo: A high-ranking member of a crime syndicate.
Drug War: A term referring to the ongoing conflict between the Mexican government and drug cartels, initiated in 2006.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, residents and businesses in Guadalajara will likely continue to experience heightened security measures. However, the effectiveness of these actions in restoring public confidence remains uncertain.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the World Cup approaches, the Mexican government will need to demonstrate a commitment to ensuring public safety. This may involve addressing the underlying issues of cartel violence and public insecurity.

Signals to watch

Public sentiment and reports of violence in Jalisco.
Government responses and policy changes regarding cartel violence.
International media coverage of safety conditions leading up to the World Cup.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about safety conditions in Guadalajara if planning to visit.
Engage with local businesses and support community efforts for stability.
Advocate for policies that address the root causes of cartel violence.

Don’t

Avoid travelling to areas known for high levels of cartel activity.
Don’t ignore community concerns regarding safety and public services.
Refrain from engaging in discussions that downplay the impact of violence on local communities.

Checklist

Assess the current safety situation if planning to travel to Guadalajara.
Research local businesses and their responses to recent violence.
Monitor government announcements regarding public safety measures.
Engage with local and international media for updates on the situation.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the current situation in Guadalajara reflects immediate concerns regarding public safety, long-term solutions remain elusive. The effectiveness of government interventions and the potential for further violence remain uncertain, as the dynamics of cartel power struggles continue to evolve.

Bottom line

The violence in Guadalajara serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing crisis in Mexico, highlighting the complexities of drug cartel dynamics and the urgent need for comprehensive solutions that prioritise community safety and stability over reactive measures. The upcoming World Cup presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the region, as it must balance international expectations with local realities.

FAQs

What is the current situation in Guadalajara regarding cartel violence?

The current situation in Guadalajara is tense, with recent violence from the CJNG following the death of its leader, causing widespread fear and destruction.

How does the cartel violence impact local businesses?

Local businesses are struggling as many residents choose to stay indoors due to fear of violence, leading to reduced foot traffic and closures.

What are the implications for the upcoming World Cup in Guadalajara?

The ongoing violence raises significant concerns about safety for international visitors, which could affect attendance and the overall experience during the World Cup.