Are Tensions Rising Again in Tigray, Ethiopia?

Fears of a return to war in northern Ethiopia are driving many from the Tigray region to flee once again, just over three years after the civil war concluded. With rising tensions, escalating prices, and restrictions on cash withdrawals, the situation is becoming increasingly dire for residents. Young people are notably migrating towards the capital, Addis Ababa, as the political landscape remains fraught with instability.

Last updated: 27 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As fears of renewed conflict grow, the humanitarian situation in Tigray is deteriorating once more. Following the peace agreement brokered by the African Union (AU) in November 2022, hopes for stability have been dashed as political disagreements and military tensions resurface. Reports of troop mobilisations and clashes between federal troops and Tigrayan fighters indicate a precarious situation, with many residents now facing cash shortages and skyrocketing prices for basic necessities.

Key takeaways

• Increased migration from Tigray as fears of renewed conflict grow.
• Rising costs of living and cash withdrawal restrictions echoing pre-war conditions.
• The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is seeking to reclaim lost territories.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the timeline of events is crucial to grasping the current situation in Tigray. Here are some key milestones:

• November 2020: The civil war begins between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
• November 2022: A peace agreement is signed in Pretoria, ending the two-year conflict.
• January 2023: Clashes resume between federal troops and Tigrayan forces, marking a resurgence of violence.
• October 2023: Reports emerge of a troop mobilisation in northern Ethiopia amidst rising tensions.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports indicate a significant uptick in military activity in Tigray, with federal forces clashing with the TPLF. There are also concerns over Eritrea’s involvement, with accusations of support for Tigrayan forces, which could escalate tensions further.

What was already established

The initial peace agreement had restored some normalcy to Tigray, with basic services being reinstated. However, the lack of resolution regarding territorial disputes and the TPLF's political status has led to an unraveling of the accord, increasing fears of renewed conflict.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK residents, the instability in Ethiopia could have indirect effects through rising global food prices and possible refugee influxes, as the humanitarian crisis deepens. Those with ties to the region may also face challenges in communication and financial transactions.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses with interests in the Horn of Africa might experience disruptions in supply chains as the situation deteriorates. Additionally, any escalation of conflict could lead to increased instability in neighbouring countries, affecting regional trade.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the crisis, working with international partners to facilitate peace talks and humanitarian aid. Upcoming elections in Ethiopia could also impact UK-Ethiopia relations, depending on the outcome and any shifts in governance.

Numbers that matter

• 600,000: Estimated number of casualties during the civil war.
• 2,000 birr: Daily cash withdrawal limit currently imposed on bank transactions.
• 1 million: People displaced from western Tigray during the conflict.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF): A political party in Ethiopia that was a dominant force in the country for two decades until the current Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, came to power.
• African Union (AU): A continental union consisting of 55 member states located on the continent of Africa, focusing on promoting unity and cooperation.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate term, the situation is likely to remain volatile. Those in Tigray should prepare for potential escalations in conflict and consider their options for safety and relocation.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As elections approach, political tensions may increase. It is crucial for observers to monitor electoral developments and any resulting international diplomatic responses.

Signals to watch

• Reports of military movements and troop mobilisations in Tigray.
• Updates on the electoral process and its implications for the TPLF.
• International diplomatic efforts and their effectiveness in mitigating conflict.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed through reliable news sources about the situation in Ethiopia.
• Support humanitarian efforts aimed at assisting those affected by the conflict.

Don’t

• Engage in speculation about the conflict without verified information.
• Ignore the broader implications of the crisis on regional stability.

Checklist

• Stay updated on the political landscape in Ethiopia.
• Monitor the humanitarian situation in Tigray.
• Engage with community efforts to support displaced individuals.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While there are signs of increasing tensions, it is important to note that not all reports are confirmed, and the situation remains fluid. The potential for misinformation also exists, particularly given the historical context of conflict in the region. As political dynamics shift, the possibility of further escalation remains a concern, particularly if diplomatic efforts are unsuccessful.

Bottom line

The situation in Tigray is precarious, with fears of renewed conflict prompting many to flee once again. The international community must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the underlying causes of instability to prevent another humanitarian disaster.

FAQs

What are the current tensions in Tigray?

Current tensions in Tigray stem from unresolved territorial disputes and military clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters, causing widespread fear of renewed conflict.

How has the peace agreement affected the situation?

The peace agreement initially restored some stability, but political disagreements and military escalations have undermined its effectiveness, leading to a resurgence of violence.

What is the role of Eritrea in this conflict?

Eritrea is accused of supporting Tigrayan forces, which has heightened tensions with the Ethiopian government, complicating the already fragile situation in the region.