Did the Green Party's Gorton and Denton Victory Just Push Labour to Third Place?

The Green Party has made history by winning the Gorton and Denton by-election, marking their first ever Westminster by-election victory. Hannah Spencer's victory not only reflects a significant shift in local political dynamics but also raises serious questions about the Labour Party's leadership under Sir Keir Starmer, especially after being pushed into third place behind Reform UK. The by-election results indicate a 26.4% swing from Labour to the Greens, highlighting growing discontent with traditional parties among voters.

Last updated: 08 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Hannah Spencer's victory in Gorton and Denton is a watershed moment for the Green Party, representing a major breakthrough into Westminster. Spencer secured nearly 41% of the vote, defeating Labour's Angeliki Stogia, who garnered just over 9,000 votes. The results reveal a stark shift in voter sentiment, particularly as Labour, which previously held this seat with more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 general election, fell to third place. This outcome puts pressure on Sir Keir Starmer's leadership and raises questions about Labour's electoral strategy moving forward.

Key takeaways

The Green Party won its first Westminster by-election, with Hannah Spencer taking the Gorton and Denton seat.
Labour dropped from first to third place, behind Reform UK, marking a 26.4% swing to the Greens.
The by-election was called after the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne.
Spencer's victory speech focused on fighting for those "left behind" and addressing economic inequality.
The results have sparked debates about Labour's strategy and leadership ahead of upcoming elections.

Timeline: how we got here

The Gorton and Denton by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, a former Labour health minister, who lost the Labour whip over offensive messages in 2022. The timeline of significant events leading to this by-election includes:

2024 (General Election): Labour wins Gorton and Denton with over 50% of the vote.
2022: Andrew Gwynne loses the Labour whip for offensive WhatsApp messages.
October 2023: By-election held; Green Party wins with Hannah Spencer.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The immediate aftermath of the by-election showcases the Green Party's unprecedented success, suggesting a potential shift in the political landscape in the UK. Spencer's acceptance speech emphasised her commitment to addressing local issues and advocating for underrepresented communities.

What was already established

Labour's previous dominance in Gorton and Denton had been assumed secure, especially after their substantial win in 2024. The party's recent performance, however, indicates a growing disconnect with voters, particularly in urban areas where the Greens have been gaining traction.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The shift in representation could have various implications for local policies affecting households in Gorton and Denton. Spencer's focus on economic inequality suggests potential changes in local economic policies, which may resonate with voters feeling the pinch of the cost-of-living crisis.

Businesses and jobs

The by-election outcome could influence local business environments, particularly as Spencer aims to advocate for those left behind economically. This may lead to initiatives aimed at supporting small businesses and addressing job creation in the area.

Policy and regulation

The Green Party's victory may herald a new approach to local governance and policy-making, prioritising sustainability and social justice. This could impact Labour's strategy in the region as they reassess their policies to regain lost support.

Numbers that matter

14,980: Votes received by Hannah Spencer, accounting for nearly 41% of the total votes cast.
10,578: Votes for Reform UK's Matt Goodwin, marking a noteworthy performance in a traditionally Labour stronghold.
9,364: Votes for Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, reflecting a significant decline in support from previous elections.
26.4%: The swing from Labour to the Green Party in this by-election, indicating shifting voter sentiment.
706: Votes for Conservative candidate Charlotte Cadden, showcasing their minimal impact in this election.

Definitions and jargon buster

By-election: A special election held to fill a vacancy that arises between general elections.
Swing: The percentage change in support for a party compared to previous elections.
Labour whip: A party member's ability to vote in accordance with party leadership; losing the whip indicates a loss of party support.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath, both Labour and the Greens will be recalibrating their strategies. Labour must address internal criticisms while the Greens will focus on solidifying their support base and implementing their agenda.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the next local elections approach, Labour will need to rethink its approach to candidate selection and community engagement to regain voter trust. The Greens may use this momentum to expand their influence in other constituencies.

Signals to watch

Polling data in the lead-up to local elections in May.
Responses from Labour's leadership regarding internal challenges and strategy shifts.
Public sentiment towards the Green Party’s initiatives and policies in Gorton and Denton.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about local political developments and party responses.
Engage with local representatives and express community concerns.
Participate in upcoming local elections to voice your opinions.

Don’t

Dismiss the implications of this by-election for broader political trends.
Assume that previous voting patterns will continue unchanged.
Ignore the voices of new representatives advocating for change.

Checklist

Review recent polling trends in your area.
Engage with community initiatives led by local representatives.
Stay updated on policy changes proposed by the Green Party.
Monitor Labour's response to the by-election results.
Consider how local issues impact your daily life and vote accordingly.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political landscape is fluid, and while the Green Party's victory represents a significant shift, the long-term viability of this momentum remains uncertain. Labour's internal dynamics and strategic decisions will greatly influence their ability to recover lost ground. Moreover, the narrative surrounding the by-election results may evolve as new data and sentiments emerge, particularly as the May elections approach.

Bottom line

The Gorton and Denton by-election marks a pivotal moment for both the Green Party and Labour, highlighting shifting voter sentiments and the potential for significant political realignments in the UK. For voters, this signifies the importance of engagement and advocacy, as emerging parties like the Greens could reshape future political discourse.

FAQs

What does the Green Party's victory mean for Labour?

The Green Party's win in Gorton and Denton signifies a challenge to Labour's traditional dominance, raising questions about their leadership and electoral strategy moving forward.

How did the by-election results impact local politics?

The by-election results could lead to changes in local governance and policies, particularly as new representatives focus on addressing issues affecting the community.

What are the implications for future elections?

This victory may signal a shift in voter sentiment that could affect upcoming elections, prompting both Labour and the Greens to strategise accordingly.