Could the New Senedd Voting System Boost Tory Success?

The upcoming changes to the Welsh electoral system, which will see the number of Senedd members increase from 60 to 96, could potentially benefit the Conservative Party in the May 2026 elections. The new party list voting system aims to ensure that election outcomes more accurately reflect the votes cast, according to Darren Millar, the Welsh Conservative Senedd leader. However, Millar has expressed his concerns that this change may reduce direct accountability between politicians and their constituents.

Last updated: 06 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

The Senedd will expand from 60 to 96 members in May 2026.
A new party list system will replace the current mixed electoral system.
Darren Millar believes the new system may encourage higher voter turnout.
Millar has voiced concerns over reduced accountability for politicians.
The Welsh Conservative leader is stepping down from his charity role.

The New Welsh Electoral System

The Senedd, Wales' Parliament, is set to undergo significant changes in May 2026, expanding its membership and altering its electoral system. The current system, which combines first past the post for 40 seats and a party list system for 20 seats, will be replaced entirely by a party list system. This new approach will allow all 96 members to be elected based on proportional representation, aiming to better reflect the voting intentions of the public.

Understanding the Party List System

The party list system is designed to ensure that the number of seats a party receives is more in line with the overall percentage of votes they receive. This is achieved through a method known as the D'Hondt system, which calculates the allocation of seats by dividing the total number of votes received by each party by a series of divisors. The resulting numbers determine how many candidates from each party are elected.

Impact on Voter Engagement

Darren Millar has noted that the new voting structure could help motivate voters, particularly those who may have felt their votes did not count under the previous system. He argues that this change may encourage Conservative supporters in areas where the party historically struggles to gain representation to participate in the electoral process.

“I think the new voting system obviously means that every single vote really does count,” Millar explained during his recent interview. He believes that the previous system deterred voters in constituencies where they perceived a low chance of electing a Conservative candidate. With the new system, he hopes to see an increase in voter turnout among Conservative supporters.

Concerns About Accountability

“The new system is effectively a power grab from members of the public to political parties,” Millar stated. He argues that the first past the post system ensures that each member of the Senedd is directly accountable to their constituents, fostering a stronger connection between politicians and the people they represent.

Political Landscape Ahead of 2026 Elections

As the Welsh Conservative Party prepares for the upcoming elections, Millar has played down concerns stemming from recent opinion polls showing the party in fourth place. He insists that polls are subject to dramatic shifts, citing examples from elections in other countries, such as Canada, where public opinion can change rapidly as campaigns develop.

Millar acknowledged that while the party has historically been strong in identifying problems facing Wales, it has struggled to effectively communicate solutions. He expressed confidence that this would change in the lead-up to the next election, stating that the party is prepared to present credible solutions to the everyday challenges facing Welsh citizens.

Future Focus and Party Image

The Welsh Conservative leader has indicated that the party plans to shift focus towards addressing what he describes as “the dreadful decisions” made by the Labour administration in Cardiff. Millar believes that by highlighting these issues, the party can position itself as a viable alternative for voters seeking common-sense, centre-right politics.

“That is when you will begin to see a resurgence of people looking for common sense, centre-right politics,” he asserted, indicating an optimistic outlook as the party navigates its current challenges.

Personal Insights and Future Plans

In addition to his political aspirations, Millar has announced that he will step down from his role as chief executive of the Pocket Testament League at the end of this month. He has dedicated a significant amount of time to this charity, committing seven hours a week to its operations. Millar stated that he felt it was time to pass the responsibility to someone else.

Millar’s personal interests include stargazing and sumo wrestling, a sport he became fond of after watching broadcasts in the 1990s. He expressed enthusiasm for attending the Grand Sumo Tournament scheduled in October at the Royal Albert Hall, highlighting the excitement of the sport’s quick bouts. “It is the oldest and the purest of the martial arts,” he remarked, reflecting on his appreciation for the tradition and immediacy of sumo wrestling.

What Lies Ahead for the Senedd and Wales?

The changes to the Welsh electoral system and the implications for the upcoming elections are significant. As the Conservative Party adapts to the new landscape, it remains to be seen how these adjustments will influence voter behaviour and party dynamics. With Millar’s leadership and strategic repositioning, the Welsh Conservatives hope to emerge stronger in the wake of these changes.

As Wales approaches the 2026 elections, the question remains: will the new voting system truly enhance voter participation and accountability, or will it lead to further disengagement from the political process? The evolving political scene in Wales is one to watch closely in the coming months.
#WelshPolitics #SeneddElections #ConservativeParty

FAQs

What is the new electoral system for the Senedd?

The new electoral system for the Senedd will employ a party list approach, where all 96 members will be elected based on proportional representation rather than a mixture of first past the post and list systems.

How will the party list system affect voter turnout?

The party list system is expected to encourage higher voter turnout, particularly among Conservative supporters in areas where they previously felt their votes did not count.

What are the concerns regarding the new voting system?

Concerns include a reduction in direct accountability of politicians to their constituents, as voters will only be able to select parties, not individual candidates.

Who is Darren Millar?

Darren Millar is the Welsh Conservative Senedd leader, who recently took over the role following Andrew RT Davies' resignation. He has been actively involved in politics and charitable work.

What changes has Millar announced regarding his charitable role?

Millar announced that he will step down as chief executive of the Pocket Testament League at the end of the month, feeling it was time to pass on the responsibility.