What If a Supervolcano Erupted 1,000 Miles From London?

Scientists are on high alert as Campi Flegrei, a supervolcano located near Naples, Italy, shows signs of increased seismic activity after centuries of relative dormancy. Despite the potential for devastation if it erupts, experts stress that an imminent eruption is unlikely. This article explores the recent findings, the implications of seismic activity, and the historical context of Campi Flegrei's eruptions.

Last updated: 26 October 2023 (BST)

Understanding Campi Flegrei: A Volcanic Overview

Campi Flegrei, which translates to "burning fields" in Italian, is a large volcanic area that comprises several craters and calderas, including the well-known Mount Vesuvius. Located just eight miles from Naples, this supervolcano has a diameter of approximately 13 kilometres and has been relatively quiet since its last significant eruption in 1538. However, scientists have long been aware of its potential for future eruptions, with the volcanic alert level remaining at yellow since 2012.

Key Takeaways

• Campi Flegrei has experienced a significant increase in seismic activity.
• Recent studies indicate four times more earthquakes than previously recorded.
• The region's caldera is showing signs of inflation and weakening.
• Experts believe that while an eruption is possible, it is not imminent.
• Evacuation plans are in place for the surrounding population.

The Historical Context of Campi Flegrei Eruptions

The last major eruption of Campi Flegrei occurred 40,000 years ago, resulting in a cataclysmic event that significantly altered the Earth's climate. This eruption produced vast ash clouds and gases that affected global temperatures, demonstrating the potential for supervolcanoes to have far-reaching consequences beyond their immediate vicinity. In contrast, the eruption in 1538, which led to the formation of Mount Nuovo, was much smaller but still caused considerable local disruption.

Recent Developments: Increased Seismic Activity

A recent study conducted by researchers from the Stanford Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity, in collaboration with Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), revealed a staggering increase in seismic activity in the Campi Flegrei area. The team employed artificial intelligence to analyse seismic data and discovered that around 54,000 earthquakes had occurred since 2022, compared to the previously recorded 12,000. This dramatic rise in earthquakes has raised concerns about the potential for a more significant volcanic event.

What the Recent Earthquakes Indicate

The recent earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei region have prompted scientists to consider the possibility of a magnitude five tremor. A notable 4.4 magnitude quake struck between Pozzuoli and Bagnoli in May, marking the strongest seismic event in the area in 40 years. Although Italian officials have stated that there is no evidence to suggest that these quakes are indicative of an impending eruption, the increased frequency of seismic events cannot be overlooked.

The Role of the Caldera in Seismic Activity

One of the primary factors contributing to the rise in seismic activity is the weakening of the caldera's underlying layers. The caldera, which is about 4 kilometres deep, has been undergoing changes since 2005, leading to the softening of its structure. This weakening is causing the crust to crack, which in turn is believed to be linked to the inflation of the caldera. Although this phenomenon has heightened earthquake occurrences, researchers have noted that magma is not currently surging towards the surface, alleviating fears of an imminent eruption.

Potential Consequences of an Eruption

Should Campi Flegrei erupt, the consequences could be severe. With approximately 360,000 people residing in the immediate area and Naples, a bustling city of over 1 million inhabitants, the potential for widespread disruption is significant. Eruptions could lead to lava flows, ashfall, and even tsunamis, as the volcanic system extends into the sea. Furthermore, ash clouds could block sunlight, resulting in lower temperatures and potentially impacting food supplies on a global scale.

Expert Opinions on Eruption Likelihood

While the increase in seismic activity is concerning, experts like Bill McGuire, a professor emeritus at University College London, caution against alarmist interpretations. He emphasises that eruptions of the magnitude witnessed 40,000 years ago are exceedingly rare. McGuire explains that a small eruption, similar to that of 1538, would likely result in localised damage but would not be catastrophic on a global scale.

Matthew Watson, a professor at the University of Bristol, echoes this sentiment, stating that while the consequences of a large eruption could be grave, the occurrence of such events is infrequent. He stresses the importance of preparation and monitoring but cautions against assuming that an eruption is imminent.

Monitoring and Preparedness

The authorities in the Naples area are taking the potential threat seriously. Evacuation plans have been developed to ensure the safety of residents in the event of an eruption. Local officials provide updates on seismic activity every six hours, keeping the community informed and prepared for any eventualities. Despite the heightened awareness, experts like Christopher Kilburn stress that the recent findings should not lead to panic but rather a better understanding of the complexities of volcanic behaviour.

What Happens Next?

The situation at Campi Flegrei remains dynamic, and scientists continue to monitor the volcanic activity closely. As researchers gather more data, they hope to gain a clearer understanding of the potential for future eruptions and the best ways to prepare for them. For now, the focus remains on utilising advanced technology to assess the seismic landscape and develop effective risk mitigation strategies.

FAQs

What is a supervolcano?

A supervolcano is a volcano that has the potential to produce an eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 8, which can have catastrophic effects on a global scale. Campi Flegrei is one such supervolcano.

How often does Campi Flegrei erupt?

Campi Flegrei has had several eruptions over the past 15,000 years, with the most significant events occurring approximately every few thousand years. The last major eruption occurred around 40,000 years ago.

What are the signs of an impending eruption?

Signs of a potential eruption include increased seismic activity, ground deformation, and gas emissions. Scientists monitor these indicators to assess volcanic risk.

Is the population at risk from Campi Flegrei?

Yes, approximately 360,000 people live in the vicinity of Campi Flegrei, with evacuation plans in place to ensure their safety in the event of an eruption.

What technologies are used to monitor Campi Flegrei?

Researchers use a combination of seismic monitoring, satellite imagery, ground deformation measurements, and advanced data analysis techniques, including artificial intelligence, to track volcanic activity.

As scientists continue to study Campi Flegrei, understanding the potential risks and preparing for future events will be crucial for the safety of the residents living nearby. The ongoing research highlights the complexity of volcanic systems and the importance of scientific vigilance. #CampiFlegrei #VolcanicActivity #SeismicMonitoring