How Are Gulf States Responding to Israel's Attack on Qatar?

The Gulf Arab states, long viewed as stable oases in a tumultuous region, are now grappling with unprecedented security threats following direct attacks from Iran and Israel. As these nations contemplate their next steps, the implications for regional stability and their diplomatic relationships are profound. This article explores the evolving landscape of Gulf security, potential responses, and the broader ramifications of these recent events.

Last updated: 18 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• Gulf Arab states face unprecedented security challenges from regional powers.
• Qatar is leading discussions for a collective regional response to recent attacks.
• The UAE is reconsidering its diplomatic ties with Israel following these incidents.
• Gulf states may explore legal avenues against Israel through international courts.
• Economic leverage through sovereign wealth funds could be employed against Israel.

The Evolving Security Landscape in the Gulf

For decades, the Gulf Arab states, including Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, have prided themselves on their economic strength and stability. However, the recent attacks by Iran and Israel have shattered this illusion of security, prompting a critical reassessment of their regional positioning and military capabilities.

In June 2023, Iran targeted an American airbase in Qatar, marking a significant escalation in hostilities that directly affects Gulf states. This was followed by Israel's airstrike targeting Hamas leadership in Doha, further intensifying the threat perception among these nations.

Historical Context of Gulf Stability

The Gulf region has been historically characterised by its relative peace, driven by oil wealth and strong ties to Western powers, particularly the United States. However, the dynamics are shifting as regional conflicts spill over borders, leading to a sense of vulnerability among these nations.

Qatar's Response to Direct Aggression

In the wake of these attacks, Qatar has pledged to coordinate a collective response with its Gulf neighbours. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani reported ongoing discussions aimed at formulating a strategy that addresses the recent aggression while maintaining regional stability.

Qatar's approach may involve both diplomatic and military options, as it seeks to avert further Israeli strikes. The upcoming Arab and Islamic summit in Doha is expected to be a pivotal moment for deciding the course of action.

Potential Military Options and Regional Unity

Despite the potential for military response, analysts indicate that options may be limited due to the historical reliance on American military support. Nonetheless, there are calls for Gulf states to activate the Peninsula Shield Force, a mutual defence pact that has remained largely theoretical until now.

“These clauses could be activated, creating a unified Gulf command and enhancing air and missile defence systems,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center.

Diplomatic Ramifications of the Attacks

One immediate reaction from the UAE, which has the closest diplomatic ties to Israel among the Gulf states, was a swift condemnation of the Israeli airstrike. President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's visit to Doha underscores the urgency with which Gulf states are approaching this crisis.

Reassessing Relations with Israel

The UAE is reportedly considering downgrading its diplomatic relations with Israel in light of these developments. This shift could signal a broader realignment in Gulf Arab policy, particularly regarding the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states.

Furthermore, senior UAE officials have signalled that any Israeli annexation plans regarding the West Bank could be considered a “red line,” threatening the fragile peace established through the accords.

Legal Avenues for Collective Action

In addition to military and diplomatic responses, Gulf states are exploring legal avenues to address Israeli actions. Qatar's Prime Minister highlighted a plan to leverage international law, including efforts to pursue cases against Israel in international courts.

“Gulf states so far have not played a key role in supporting these efforts, politically or financially. However, this could change,” stated Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East Policy.

Challenges to Regional Consensus

While there is a call for unity among Gulf states, competing domestic interests and historical rivalries could complicate efforts to form a cohesive response. Analysts suggest that the Gulf states might be cautious about jeopardising their relationships with the United States, especially under an administration that has strongly backed Israel.

Economic Leverage and Strategic Investments

The immense wealth generated from oil and gas exports positions Gulf states to exert significant economic influence. Analysts suggest that sovereign wealth funds could be used to impose trade restrictions on Israel, particularly targeting companies with stakes in the Israeli economy.

“The trillions the Gulf states are investing in the US economy are premised on a secure Gulf region,” said Bader Al-Saif. “If they feel insecure due to actions taken by American allies, those funds could be redirected.”

Potential Shift in Economic Partnerships

As Gulf states reassess their security and economic strategies, there is potential for investment patterns to shift. If the perception of instability continues, these nations may seek alternative partnerships or investments that align more closely with their security interests.

The Broader Implications for the Gulf Region

The recent attacks have underscored the precarious position of Gulf Arab states. With rising tensions and a reevaluation of alliances, the potential for conflict could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the region.

Furthermore, the reliance on the US for military support is being scrutinised, with calls for a more independent defence strategy gaining traction among Gulf nations. This could lead to a significant transformation in their military and diplomatic relationships moving forward.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Gulf Security

The recent Israeli and Iranian actions have marked a pivotal moment for the Gulf Arab states, compelling them to confront new security challenges and reconsider their diplomatic ties. As they seek a unified response, the future of regional stability hangs in the balance.

In this rapidly changing landscape, the decisions made in the coming weeks will be critical. How Gulf states navigate these challenges could redefine their roles on the global stage and affect the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics. What will be the long-term consequences of these attacks on Gulf security and diplomacy?

#GulfSecurity #MiddleEast #QatarResponse

FAQs

What recent events have threatened Gulf Arab state stability?

Recent attacks by Iran and Israel targeting Gulf nations have raised security concerns among the Gulf Arab states, marking a significant shift in the regional landscape.

What is Qatar's response to these attacks?

Qatar has vowed to coordinate a collective regional response with its Gulf partners, exploring both military and diplomatic options, including legal actions through international courts.

How might the UAE's relationship with Israel change?

The UAE is considering downgrading its diplomatic relations with Israel following the attacks, reflecting growing discontent with Israeli actions and potential repercussions for the Abraham Accords.

What role could economic measures play in the Gulf's response?

Gulf states may utilise their sovereign wealth funds to impose economic restrictions on Israel, potentially targeting companies with significant ties to the Israeli economy as a form of leverage.

Are Gulf states likely to activate military agreements?

There is potential for Gulf states to activate the Peninsula Shield Force, a mutual defence pact, as they seek to enhance their military capabilities in response to regional threats.