How Has AI Contributed $160 Billion to True GDP Since 2022?

The economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) is a topic of growing interest, particularly in light of new research indicating that much of AI's contributions to the economy remain unmeasured. Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that while AI is driving significant growth, particularly since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, only a fraction of this impact is reflected in official GDP statistics. This discrepancy raises questions about the true state of the economy and how emerging technologies shape it.

Last updated: 21 September 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• AI's true economic impact since 2022 is estimated at $160 billion, significantly higher than the $45 billion officially recorded.
• Investment in AI infrastructure has surged by $400 billion, with substantial spending on information processing equipment.
• The official GDP numbers fail to capture a large portion of AI-enabled economic activity, highlighting a gap in statistical methodologies.
• The Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that AI could be more critical to economic growth than traditional consumer spending.
• Policymakers are challenged to adapt economic indicators to reflect the rapid advancements in technology.

Understanding AI's Economic Contribution

Artificial Intelligence has emerged as a transformative force within the global economy, reshaping industries and redefining productivity metrics. The research conducted by Elsie Peng, Joseph Briggs, and Sarah Dong, members of the Goldman Sachs team led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, illustrates a notable discrepancy between AI's perceived contribution and its actual recorded impact on the economy.

The Concept of "True GDP"

The concept of "true GDP" is pivotal in understanding AI's economic influence. According to the Goldman Sachs research, the notion of GDP as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) only accounts for final demand—essentially, the GDP figures reflect economic activity when a final product is sold. For instance, a semiconductor contributes to GDP only when it is used in a product that is purchased, such as a laptop. This methodology means that billions in AI-related economic activity remain unquantified.

Recent Findings on AI Infrastructure Spending

The Goldman Sachs analysis reveals that since 2022, spending on AI infrastructure by U.S. firms has skyrocketed by an estimated $400 billion. This surge has been particularly prominent in the realm of information processing equipment, which saw a remarkable 39% annualised growth rate in the first half of 2025. This data underlines the shift in corporate focus towards AI technologies and the associated infrastructure required to support them.

Dissecting AI's Contribution to GDP

To provide a clearer picture of AI's domestic economic impact, the Goldman Sachs team adjusted revenue data from companies, removing the effects of inflated prices, foreign sales, and imports. This adjustment led to the identification of a staggering $160 billion contribution to what they term "true GDP," representing about 0.7% of the U.S. GDP since 2022. In contrast, the amount officially acknowledged within measured GDP was significantly lower, at just $45 billion or 0.2%, equating to approximately 0.1 percentage points of annualised growth.

Channels of AI Impact on the Economy

The analysts identified four main channels through which AI influences the U.S. economy:

1. **Investment in Equipment**: This includes spending on semiconductors and servers that are essential for AI functionality.
2. **Investment in Structures**: This category encompasses the construction of data centres and power facilities necessary for AI operations.
3. **Intellectual Property**: This involves expenditure on software, research, and development (R&D) aimed at advancing AI technologies.
4. **Net Exports**: This refers to the export of AI-related goods and services, although much of the investment surge has been driven by imports.

The Role of Imports in AI Growth

Despite the impressive figures, the analysts caution that much of the investment in AI infrastructure has been fuelled by imports. This means that while the overall spending looks robust, it has not necessarily contributed directly to U.S. GDP growth. In fact, the accelerated investment appears to have been strategically timed in anticipation of upcoming tariff increases, suggesting a front-loading of expenditures.

The Current Economic Landscape

The findings from Goldman Sachs come at a time when policymakers are grappling with how to accurately track the economic impact of rapidly evolving technologies like AI. Traditional indicators may not adequately capture the realities of a landscape influenced by technological advancements. As Christopher Mims from The Wall Street Journal noted, the surge in AI infrastructure spending seems to be contributing more to GDP growth than consumer spending, which has historically been the backbone of the American economy.

Consumer Spending vs. AI Investment

Consumer spending is responsible for about two-thirds of GDP as measured by the BEA, yet it appears that AI-related growth may be outpacing this traditional metric. Recent retail sales data indicates a modest increase of 0.6% in August, but the broader economic narrative suggests a weary consumer base. This juxtaposition paints a picture of a robust AI sector driving growth amid a struggling economy with sluggish job growth.

The Implications for Investors and Business Leaders

For investors and business leaders, the implications of these findings are profound. The AI wave in the U.S. economy could be more substantial and sustainable than what the official numbers indicate. As the government begins to refine its statistical methodologies to better account for technological advancements, a clearer understanding of AI’s economic footprint may emerge. However, until then, much of its impact remains concealed within the complexities of current measurement frameworks.

What Lies Ahead for AI and the Economy?

Looking to the future, it is crucial for both policymakers and economists to adapt their approaches. As AI continues to shape the economic landscape, the need for accurate measurement will become increasingly pressing. Understanding the true economic contributions of AI will not only inform policy decisions but also help in assessing potential risks associated with an AI-driven economy.

FAQs

What is the estimated economic impact of AI since 2022?

Since 2022, AI's estimated economic impact is around $160 billion, according to Goldman Sachs, significantly higher than the $45 billion officially recorded in GDP statistics.

How has AI infrastructure spending changed recently?

AI infrastructure spending has increased by approximately $400 billion since 2022, with a notable spike in investment in information processing equipment.

Why is there a discrepancy between true GDP and measured GDP?

The discrepancy arises because measured GDP only accounts for economic activity when final products are sold, overlooking substantial AI-related economic activity that isn't reflected in traditional metrics.

What are the main channels through which AI impacts the economy?

The main channels include investment in equipment, structures, intellectual property, and net exports of AI-related goods and services.

How do imports affect AI's GDP contribution?

Much of the investment in AI has been driven by imports, which means that while spending appears strong, it may not directly contribute to net GDP growth in the U.S.

As we continue to navigate the evolving landscape of AI, it is essential to recognise its hidden potential and the need for refined economic measurements. The growing influence of AI could reshape the economy in ways we are just beginning to understand. #ArtificialIntelligence #Economy #GDP