Is Erdogan's Irredentism Losing Its Edge?

The geopolitical landscape is undergoing rapid and dramatic changes as countries like Turkey and the United States pursue aggressive, often irredentist policies. This article explores the implications of these actions, particularly in relation to Turkey’s evolving role in regional dynamics and its interactions with global powers. The situation remains fluid, yet several key patterns and outcomes are emerging.

Last updated: 19 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• Turkey has transitioned from a status-quo power to a revisionist one over the past decade.
• The United States under Donald Trump has adopted aggressive territorial ambitions, echoing Turkey's past actions.
• Turkey faces both challenges and opportunities as it seeks to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
• Regional coalitions are forming in response to Turkey's actions, complicating its foreign policy strategies.
• Irredentist ambitions among global powers have blurred the lines between ally and adversary in international relations.

Turkey's Shift from Status Quo to Revisionist Power

Over the last decade, Turkey has significantly altered its role on the geopolitical stage. Once considered a stabilising force, Ankara has become increasingly assertive in its foreign policy. This transition is evident in its military interventions in conflicts across Libya, Syria, and the Caucasus. By actively engaging in these disputes, Turkey has sought to reshape regional dynamics in its favour, securing strategic advantages that have had far-reaching consequences.

Military Interventions and Their Impact

Turkey's military interventions have been propelled by a desire to influence the outcomes of conflicts that are critical to its national interests. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria and Azerbaijan's capture of Nagorno-Karabakh serve as prime examples of how Turkey has leveraged its military might. These actions, however, have not come without significant backlash, as they have sparked a coalition of neighbouring states determined to contain Turkey's expansionist tendencies.

The Emergence of a New Geopolitical Order

As Turkey has pursued its revisionist agenda, a new geopolitical order has begun to emerge. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a pivotal shift, challenging existing international norms. Countries like Israel have responded with their own aggressive actions, further complicating the landscape. As geopolitical provocations escalate, Turkey’s past actions seem less alarming compared to the more extreme measures being taken by other nations.

The Role of the United States

The United States, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump, has adopted an unpredictable foreign policy stance. Trump's administration has shown a willingness to entertain irredentist ideas, such as the notion of expanding U.S. territory by purchasing Greenland or making Canada the 51st state. This sudden pivot has created a vacuum that revisionist powers like Russia and Israel have eagerly sought to fill.

Turkey's Domestic and International Challenges

Despite its assertiveness, Turkey is currently navigating a complex array of challenges. Domestically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is consolidating his power in an authoritarian manner, working to suppress opposition and maintain control. Internationally, Turkey must contend with the consequences of its own aggressive actions, which have fostered a coalition of nations—including France, Greece, and Egypt—united in their desire to counter Turkish influence.

Geopolitical Blowback from Aggressive Policies

The blowback from Turkey's past provocations is palpable. As regional dynamics shift, Turkey must recalibrate its foreign policy to avoid triggering direct confrontations, particularly with Israel, which has increased its military operations in the region. Such confrontations could destabilise Turkey’s hard-won gains, especially in Syria.

Opportunities Amidst Challenges

While Turkey faces significant obstacles, it also has unique opportunities to reshape its geopolitical relationships. By recalibrating its foreign policy and appealing to shared concerns among regional powers, Turkey is attempting to restore frayed alliances. Erdogan's administration is positioning Turkey as a necessary partner for Europe in containing Russia, particularly in the absence of a strong American presence under Trump.

Regional Reassessments

In light of Israel's unchecked aggression, Turkey's own actions appear less threatening to its Arab neighbours. Countries like Egypt and Gulf states are now more inclined to coordinate with Turkey, viewing it as a potential counterbalance to Israeli expansionism in the region. This shift indicates a nuanced recalibration of allegiances in a rapidly changing environment.

The Evolution of Geopolitical Narratives

Former Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's vision of a "neo-Ottoman" influence may have been ambitious, but it reflected a desire to position Turkey as a stabilising force in a post-Cold War world. However, the prevailing geopolitical narratives have shifted, and the win-win framing that characterised earlier engagements is diminishing. Nations are now compelled to align based on the necessity of countering greater threats rather than pursuing mutually beneficial partnerships.

The Era of Lesser Evils

In this new reality, countries are increasingly forced to make difficult choices in their alliances. The concept of the "lesser evil" is gaining traction, suggesting that nations may partner with seemingly less desirable allies to confront more significant threats. This paradigm shift complicates traditional notions of diplomacy and cooperation, as nations navigate a more antagonistic global landscape.

Conclusion

The geopolitical landscape is shifting at an unprecedented rate, with Turkey and the United States adopting aggressive policies that echo each other's past actions. As Turkey navigates its own internal challenges and international relations, the implications of its actions will continue to reverberate throughout the region. The rise of a new geopolitical order, defined by irredentist ambitions and shifting alliances, leaves many questions unanswered about the future of global diplomacy.

What remains to be seen is how these evolving dynamics will shape the future of international relations and whether countries can find common ground in the face of rising authoritarianism and territorial ambitions. #Geopolitics #Turkey #InternationalRelations

FAQs

What is Turkey's current role in the geopolitical landscape?

Turkey has transitioned from being a stabilising power to a revisionist one, actively engaging in military interventions and altering regional dynamics to its advantage.

How has the United States under Trump influenced global geopolitics?

Trump's administration has adopted aggressive territorial ambitions, creating a vacuum that revisionist powers like Russia and Israel have exploited, complicating international relations.

What challenges does Turkey face in consolidating its power?

Domestically, Turkey is dealing with opposition suppression, while internationally, it faces backlash from its aggressive policies and must navigate complex regional coalitions against it.

How are Turkey's relationships with Arab nations changing?

Turkey's actions appear less threatening to Arab nations amid Israel's aggression, leading to increased coordination and partnerships, particularly in the context of containing Israeli expansionism.

What does the term "lesser evil" mean in current geopolitics?

The "lesser evil" concept refers to the idea that countries may form alliances with less desirable partners to counter more significant threats, reflecting a shift in diplomatic priorities.