Should You Trade Salah for Haaland in FPL?

Choosing between Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland for your Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team is a crucial decision this season. Salah has delivered two goals and one assist in his first four matches, while Haaland boasts an impressive five goals. With differing underlying statistics and team dynamics, FPL managers must weigh their options carefully.

Last updated: 20 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• Salah has two goals and one assist; Haaland has five goals.
• Underlying numbers favour Haaland significantly.
• Consider the impact of Liverpool’s new attacking setup on Salah.
• Haaland faces a tough fixture against Arsenal next.
• Timing your transfer could be key, especially before Haaland's match against Burnley.

Salah vs. Haaland: The FPL Dilemma

The debate over whether to select Mohamed Salah or Erling Haaland in your Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squad is heating up. Salah, a perennial favourite among FPL managers, has struggled to replicate his previous season's form, while Haaland has emerged as a formidable goal scorer for Manchester City. This article breaks down both players' performances, underlying statistics, and potential impact for the rest of the season.

Current Form and Statistics

As of now, Salah has managed to score two goals and provide one assist in four league matches. While these contributions are respectable, they pale in comparison to Haaland's five goals in the same timeframe without any assists. The disparity in their performances raises questions about Salah's place in FPL teams.

Underlying Numbers: What the Data Says

When we delve into the underlying statistics, the contrast becomes even more pronounced. Salah has only attempted five shots this season, with just one big chance created. Excluding a penalty awarded last week, his expected goals (xG) stands at a mere 0.31. In stark contrast, Haaland has taken 19 shots, nine of which were classified as big chances, and boasts a non-penalty xG of 5.74. This figure exceeds Salah's by more than 18 times, indicating Haaland's superior goal-scoring potential.

Historical Performance Comparison

Reflecting on last season, Salah had nearly double the FPL points in the first four gameweeks compared to his current tally. At this point last year, he had amassed 25 points, while Haaland has accumulated 37 points so far. This disparity suggests that Haaland is currently the more valuable asset for FPL managers.

The Impact of Team Dynamics

One significant factor affecting Salah's output this season is the new-look Liverpool attack. Early indications suggest that the team is struggling to find its rhythm, which could adversely affect Salah's goal contributions. If his share of goals within the team declines, Salah will require Liverpool to score even more to maintain his FPL appeal. Given the current state of affairs, Haaland's consistent scoring makes him the safer choice for managers looking to maximise their points.

Fixture Analysis: Upcoming Matches

Looking ahead, Haaland will face one of his toughest challenges yet against Arsenal, who have proven to be a solid defensive unit. They have only conceded one goal this season, a free-kick from Dominik Szoboszlai, highlighting their resilience. If there is a match where Haaland might struggle, this could be it. Conversely, Salah's fixtures may present opportunities for him to bounce back, especially if Liverpool's attack begins to gel.

Timing Your Transfers

For FPL managers weighing the decision to swap Salah for Haaland, timing is crucial. Waiting until gameweek six, when Haaland plays at home against Burnley, could be the optimal strategy. This move allows managers to evaluate how both players perform in their next fixtures and make a more informed decision. However, the risk of going without Haaland, especially given his current form and goal-scoring ability, could prove detrimental.

Expert Opinions

FPL expert Gianni Buttice suggests that while Salah's numbers have been underwhelming, removing him from your squad could be a precarious move. He believes that once Alexander Isak integrates into the team, Salah's scoring opportunities may improve. Statman Dave, on the other hand, acknowledges that Salah may have been fortunate to score his current goals but advises caution in dropping him, as he could still have significant contributions once Liverpool's attack stabilises.

Strategic Considerations for FPL Managers

When deciding between Salah and Haaland, managers should consider the following strategies:

• Evaluate player form and fixture difficulty.
• Monitor Liverpool’s attacking cohesion and Salah's involvement.
• Assess the importance of having a high-scoring forward versus a high-priced midfielder.
• Consider the timing of transfers to maximise points potential.

What Lies Ahead for Salah and Haaland?

The trajectory of both players will depend on their team's performances and upcoming fixtures. Salah's potential for resurgence hinges on Liverpool's ability to create more scoring opportunities, while Haaland's consistency will be tested against tougher defences. As the season progresses, FPL managers must stay agile, ready to adapt their strategies based on player performances and team dynamics.

In conclusion, the choice between Salah and Haaland is not straightforward. While Haaland currently appears to be the safer option, Salah's potential for a turnaround cannot be overlooked. It is essential to keep a close eye on the upcoming fixtures and team performances to make the best decision for your FPL squad. Will you prioritise the consistent goal scorer or gamble on the potential resurgence of a proven star?

FAQs

Who should I pick for my FPL team, Salah or Haaland?

Choosing between Salah and Haaland depends on your team strategy. Currently, Haaland has better form and underlying statistics, but Salah could still deliver points if Liverpool's attack improves.

What are the risks of swapping Salah for Haaland?

Swapping Salah for Haaland carries risks, especially if Salah's form improves. Timing your transfer is crucial to avoid missing out on points from either player.

How do Salah's and Haaland's fixtures compare?

Haaland faces a challenging fixture against Arsenal, while Salah's upcoming matches may offer better opportunities. Evaluating fixture difficulty is essential for making FPL decisions.

Can Salah regain his scoring form?

Yes, Salah can regain his scoring form if Liverpool's attack starts to gel. Keep an eye on their performance in upcoming matches for clues on his potential.

Is it better to have a high-priced midfielder or forward in FPL?

Generally, having a high-priced midfielder can be advantageous due to their potential for assists and goals. However, high-scoring forwards like Haaland can also provide significant value.