Can Welsh Conservatives Turn the Tide Before the Election?

As the 2026 Senedd election approaches, Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar asserts his party is not part of the establishment, despite recent opinion polls showing a decline in support. The Welsh Conservatives, who finished second in the 2021 election, now find themselves in fourth position, prompting Millar to express optimism about regaining lost ground. With Labour's vote share dropping to a historic low, the political landscape is shifting, raising questions about the future of Welsh governance and party dynamics.

Last updated: 30 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• Darren Millar claims the Welsh Conservatives are not the establishment, aiming to regain support ahead of the 2026 Senedd election.
• Welsh Labour's projected vote share has dropped to 14%, marking a significant decline.
• The number of Senedd members will increase from 60 to 96, potentially altering the political landscape.
• The Welsh Conservatives face challenges from Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, both of which are gaining traction.
• Millar highlights dissatisfaction with the Welsh Labour government's performance in health, education, and the economy.

The Context of the Upcoming Senedd Election

The 2026 Senedd election is poised to be one of the most consequential since the establishment of the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) in 1999. With a substantial increase in the number of Senedd members, from 60 to 96, this election could reshape the political landscape in Wales. Representational changes may lead to a more diverse range of voices and perspectives, impacting governance and policy-making.

Current Political Landscape

The recent opinion poll conducted by ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov, and Cardiff University indicates a notable shift in voter sentiment. Welsh Labour, traditionally the dominant party since devolution, has seen its projected vote share plummet to just 14%. This unprecedented decline raises questions about the party's future and its ability to maintain control amid growing dissatisfaction with its governance.

Welsh Conservative Party's Position

Millar's assertion that the Welsh Conservatives are "not the establishment" seeks to distance the party from the perceived failures of the UK government led by the Conservatives in Westminster. He argues that the Welsh Conservatives have never been in power in Wales, positioning his party as a fresh alternative amidst the ongoing dissatisfaction with Labour's performance. Millar points to the Welsh NHS, education system, and the economy as key areas where voters have expressed discontent.

Challenges Facing the Welsh Conservatives

Despite Millar's optimism, the Welsh Conservatives face significant challenges. Their drop to fourth place in the recent poll reflects a broader national trend for the party, which suffered a "disastrous" general election in 2024. Millar acknowledges that the party is still in "recovery mode," grappling with the consequences of previous electoral losses.

Voter Sentiment and Policy Perception

Millar contends that many voters do not fully grasp the limitations of the Senedd and its powers. He suggests that issues such as immigration, which fall outside the Senedd's jurisdiction, have driven some voters towards Reform UK, a party that has gained traction by capitalising on public frustrations. Millar believes that as scrutiny increases on Reform's proposals, more voters will reconsider their support for the Conservatives.

Labour's Response and Political Dynamics

The response from Labour has been swift. A spokesperson highlighted the challenges faced by the party in Westminster and accused the Conservatives of attempting to shift blame for the current crises in Wales. Labour argues that it is the party working to rectify the issues caused by fourteen years of Conservative governance at the UK level.

Reform UK and Plaid Cymru's Standpoint

Reform UK has been vocal in its criticism of the Conservatives, labelling them as "on the path of extinction." They argue that the party's track record in Westminster has left voters disillusioned and unwilling to support them. Similarly, Plaid Cymru's response to Millar's claims highlights the party's consistent challenge to Labour, asserting that blaming smaller parties for Wales' issues is disingenuous.

The Role of Smaller Parties in Welsh Politics

The dynamics between the major parties and smaller parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have become increasingly complex. As the electoral landscape shifts, smaller parties are positioning themselves as viable alternatives, appealing to voters seeking change. This shift may alter the traditional two-party dominance in Welsh politics, creating opportunities for new coalitions and alliances.

Implications for Welsh Governance

The outcome of the 2026 Senedd election will be pivotal for Welsh governance. An increase in the number of Senedd members may result in a more representative and responsive government, assuming that new parties can articulate clear policies and solutions. The ability of parties, including the Conservatives, to connect with voters and address their concerns will be crucial in determining the election's outcome.

Looking Ahead: What Happens Next?

As the election approaches, the Welsh Conservatives must effectively communicate their vision and policies to regain voter trust. Millar's focus on the performance of the Welsh Labour government could resonate with disenchanted voters, but he must also provide clear solutions to the pressing issues facing Wales.

Conclusion

The 2026 Senedd election represents a turning point for Welsh politics. With increasing voter dissatisfaction and a shifting political landscape, parties must navigate these complexities to secure their positions. The Welsh Conservatives, under Millar's leadership, face both challenges and opportunities as they aim to redefine their role in Welsh governance. How will the evolving political dynamics shape the future of Wales, and what can voters expect from the competing parties?

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FAQs

What is the significance of the 2026 Senedd election?

The 2026 Senedd election is significant due to an increase in the number of members from 60 to 96, which could reshape Welsh governance and representation.

How have recent polls affected the Welsh Conservatives?

Recent polls have shown a decline in support for the Welsh Conservatives, dropping them to fourth place, which has prompted leader Darren Millar to work harder to regain voter trust.

What challenges is Welsh Labour currently facing?

Welsh Labour is facing challenges as its projected vote share has dropped to a historic low of 14%, raising concerns about its ability to maintain control in the upcoming election.

How do smaller parties influence Welsh politics?

Smaller parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are gaining traction by appealing to voters dissatisfied with major parties, potentially altering the traditional political landscape in Wales.

What are the key issues affecting voter sentiment in Wales?

Key issues affecting voter sentiment include dissatisfaction with the Welsh NHS, education system, and the economy, which have contributed to declining support for the Labour government.