What Does Bryan Norcross Predict for Hurricanes on September 20, 2025?

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is poised to potentially become the second hurricane of the Atlantic season, with conditions gradually improving for development. Although currently hindered by hostile upper winds and dry air, thunderstorms are forming near its centre, hinting at its future intensification. Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda, bringing dangerous swells but no direct impact on the island.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

Key Takeaways

• Tropical Storm Gabrielle may strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend.
• The storm is forecasted to pass east of Bermuda, affecting sea conditions.
• Two additional disturbances are developing in the Atlantic, but their threat remains low.
• Long-range forecasts suggest a strong jet stream dip may keep systems offshore.
• Forecast models indicate a need for careful monitoring but show lower chances for significant development.

Current Status of Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is currently struggling to intensify due to adverse upper winds and dry air. However, it has begun to develop thunderstorms, marking a crucial initial step toward becoming a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has provided optimistic projections, suggesting Gabrielle could reach hurricane strength over the weekend.

Historical Context

This potential development is noteworthy, as it would mark the season's second hurricane, which is quite unusual for this late in the year. The last time a similar occurrence happened was in 1994. While historical patterns can offer insight, they do not necessarily predict future events with certainty, especially in a dynamic climate scenario.

Projected Path and Impact

As Gabrielle progresses, it is expected to move in the general direction of Bermuda. Forecast models converge on the expectation that the storm will miss the island to the east. Despite this, strong swells associated with the storm will create hazardous conditions for boating and beach activities around Bermuda over the weekend.

Hazards Associated with Gabrielle

Residents and visitors in Bermuda should prepare for heavy swells, which can result in dangerous rip currents and high surf. These conditions can pose significant risks, especially for those engaging in water sports or spending time at the beach.

Other Disturbances in the Atlantic

Beyond Gabrielle, the NHC is monitoring another tropical disturbance situated on the far side of the Atlantic. Current atmospheric conditions are unfavourable for development, suggesting low chances for this system to evolve into a tropical depression next week as it heads towards the Caribbean islands.

Potential Developments

There are two disorganised systems moving westward, with the first disturbance anticipated to reach the Caribbean islands around Tuesday. A moisture surge is expected, but neither system is currently projected to pose a significant threat. However, ongoing monitoring is essential, particularly for the second disturbance, which the NHC is closely observing.

Long-Range Forecasts and Implications

Long-range forecasts indicate that one or both disturbances may attempt to develop further, especially as they approach the potential development zone north of Cuba and east of Florida. The consensus among various computer models suggests that a significant dip in the jet stream will likely keep these systems offshore.

Forecast Models and Their Evolution

The exclusive Fox Weather Tropical Threat analysis employs several forecasting models, including those from European, U.S. GFS, and Google DeepMind AI. These models have shown considerable progress but require ongoing evaluation to confirm their reliability. The dark blue stripe next to Gabrielle’s track indicates a possible path for the second disturbance, as per the NHC's development area projections.

The Role of the Jet Stream

The anticipated jet stream dip over the Southeast is a crucial factor in determining the paths of these disturbances. This weather pattern has been a consistent feature since August, and its expected persistence suggests a reduced likelihood of menacing developments in the near future.

Understanding Forecast Limitations

Given the uncertainties inherent in long-range forecasts, the NHC typically refrains from extending predictions beyond seven days. While trends and patterns can provide valuable insights, the dynamic nature of atmospheric conditions makes accurate long-term forecasting challenging. Therefore, continuous observation and updated analyses will be vital as the season progresses.

Conclusion

The situation surrounding Tropical Storm Gabrielle is developing, with the potential for the storm to strengthen over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains active with additional disturbances, though their immediate threat appears minimal. Ongoing updates from the NHC will be crucial for those in affected areas to stay informed and prepared for any changes. As we continue to monitor Gabrielle and the other disturbances, it raises the question: how will global climate factors influence hurricane activity in the coming weeks?

Stay alert to weather updates and advisories, and prepare for the upcoming changes in conditions as the storm develops. #TropicalStormGabrielle #HurricaneSeason2023 #WeatherUpdates